The Mahinda Rajapaksa administration pledged that as of 1 December, Internally displaced People (IDP) who still live in refugee camps will be able to go in and out of them without impediments. Currently, 160,000 people are still living in these open-air prisons, surrounded by barbed wire and under the watchful eye of soldiers.

For Rene De Vries, country director for Oxfam in Sri Lanka, the government’s announcement is a “good step forward”. However, “As far as we understand now, it's not total freedom,” he said, but “a pass system where people will be allowed to leave for a fixed period of time [. . .] but then will have to return to the camp.”

The concession on IDPs is the result of international pressure and political calculation by the government, this according to Fr Sarath Iddamalgoda, Catholic priest and human rights activist.

“We have already had a bad experience on refugees’ freedom and resettlement,” he said, “so we have little faith in this announcement.”

The entry of ex General Sarath Fonseka into the campaign has reinforced concerns raised by the promise to release IDPs. The former commander of the army who beat the Tamil Tigers resigned from his post on 13 November to run for the Janatha Vimukthi Peramunae United National Party against Rajapaksa.

The current president’s mandate ends in 2011, but he has anticipated the poll to January of next year, claiming that this way all Sri Lankan citizens would be able to choose their president.

For most commentators, Rajapaksa’s decision is in reality an attempt to capitalise on his victory over the Tamil Tigers among the Sinhala majority. This is why the opposition is fielding war hero Fonseka.

For humanitarian workers and civil society groups operating on the island, there is nothing reassuring in this scenario. Instead, there are genuine fears that the fate of thousands of war refugees might end up as part of a broader quid pro quo and something to use during the election campaign.