Bird flu risks stopping Turkey's economic growth
Ankara (AsiaNews/Agencies) The rising number of bird flu cases in humans is raising fears in Turkey about what they might do to the economy. Foreign trade and tourism are key sectors of the economy and highly sensitive to fears about the disease.
Since the serious financial crisis the country suffered in 2001, Turkey's economy has been growing at an annual rate of 8 per cent with inflation at an all-time low. And "for now we can talk of only a very small impact on tourism and the economy (from bird flu)," Investment analyst Turker Hamzaoglu said.
Financial markets were firm on Monday, their first trading day after the week-long Hajj religious holiday. The main Istanbul stock index was up 2.46 per cent. But with the tourism sector worth an estimated US$ 20 billion and a major source of foreign currency, all eyes are on the bird flu-affected eastern part of the country, far from its main tourist resorts and hotel network along the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas.
Industry officials said it was too early to gauge the impact of bird flu, if any, on tourism because bookings for the holiday season usually only start in January.
To reassure all parties, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan noted that "[w]e have shared all information with the public and have been transparent". However, the poultry sector is in serious troubles; so much so that since December "there are no sales at all," this according to Omer Gorener, general manager of leading poultry producer Banvit.
Yet, although the poultry sector may have been hit hard, it is not very likely that too many people will switch to more expensive substitutes like fish and red meat, Hamzaoglu said.
"Nearly 1 million poultry have been culled so far (due to bird flu) in Turkey, and farmers were paid compensation," PM Erdogan said. "Leaders of several EU countries stated that they are ready to do their best to help Turkey".
Since mid-December, "'bird flu cases have been detected in 13 cities so far. There are suspected cases in 23 cities," he noted. But "the virus spreads from poultry which are fed in open spaces [. . .] our citizens can consume white meat and eggs which are produced in integrated facilities."
The International Monetary Fund said last week that at this stage the outbreak of bird flu is unlikely to affect the country's billion standby accord; however, it could eventually cost the country some US billion, or one per cent of gross national product.
Turkey's current account deficit is the equivalent of six per cent of gross national product and this makes the balance of payments vulnerable to a bird-flu-type of shock.
"The World Bank stands ready to assist Turkey in any way possible to reduce the health and economic impact of bird flu on both poultry producers and farmers and the population at large," said Andrew Vorkink, director of the World Bank for Turkey.
The World Bank has also established aggregate financing scheme worth US$ 500 million to help developing countries to prepare for, control, and respond to influenza pandemics.
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16/01/2006
