UN says India's population will overtake China in seven years

Today, 1.3 billion people live in the Republic of India, 1.4 billion in the People's Republic of China. The United Nations report highlights a decline in fertility. The aging of the population is likely to break the social security systems.


New York (AsiaNews / Agencies) - In seven years the population of India will surpass that of China, according to a report by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. According to experts, in 2024, the population growth of the Republic of India, secular and democratic, populated today by nearly 1.3 billion people, will be greater than the People's Republic of China, which today stands at 1.4 billion. In all probability, Beijing will pay the cost of decades of family planning, having imposed the one-child law since 1979 (modified with some "easing" only in 2014).

The report - titled "The World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision" - examines data from 233 countries. The document shows that the fertility rate has dropped everywhere in recent years. The 10 most populous countries where the birth rate was lowest were: China, the United States, Brazil, Russia, Japan, Vietnam, Germany, Iran, Thailand and Great Britain.

In addition to a decline in population growth, low levels of fertility lead to an aging population. The report predicts that the over 60s will more than double worldwide from the current 962 million to 2.1 billion in 2050 and up to 3.1 billion in 2100. But an aging population, with a small workforce that bears the burden of social security, is likely to lead to a real collapse in the social welfare system, as experts have long feared for China.

The UN's data show that by 2050, the population growth will be concentrated in 10 countries: India, Nigeria, Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the United States, Uganda and Indonesia. The world population (composed today of 7.6 billion people) in 2030 will be 8.6 billion; In 2050 it will reach 9.8 billion; In 2100 it will peak at 11.2 billion.

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