» 02/12/2014, 00.00
China, surprise record trade balance for January: more than 31.9 billion dollars
Analysts express doubts, Beijing may have been distorted data by multiplying fake trade with Hong Kong. The authorities defended themselves: "The merit of the Lunar New Year, which traditionally is the best commercial time of year”.
Beijing ( AsiaNews / Agencies) - Contrary
to forecasts and analysis, the Chinese trade balance recorded a surplus in
January, of 31.9 billion dollars, much higher than both the 25.6 billion in
December 2013 and 23.7 billion
surged by 10.6 % annually in January (compared to forecast of 2%) imports also
increasing (+10%), the biggest figure since last July. The
value of imports grew at a pace that has not been seen since July. Imports
of crude oil, iron ore and copper have all reached record levels, according to
The data released by the Customs
Bureau, caught markets off guard and reduced fears of a slowdown in the world's
second largest economy, reported by all recently published indicators. Analysts,
however, express caution, noting that the numbers could be inflated by a series
of fictitious transactions to bring money back into the country bypassing the
foreign exchange regulator. In
particular, there is a major discrepancy in import-export figures with Hong
defend their figures and point to the beginning of the Lunar Year, which falls
in some years in January and others in February, as the real positive variable.
New Year means an increase in domestic spending, industrial production offsets
without exceeding demand and the internal movements of goods and people increases.
main result is that the Yuan remains under pressure for further appreciation. Some
analysts say the barrier of 6.0 - up to 5.98 yuan per dollar - could be broken in
chief economist at RBS in Hong Kong, observes: "This should make markets
more relaxed about both global demand and demand in China's own economy. However,
we are also left with a nagging feeling that perhaps issues such as
over-invoicing have risen sharply in intensity early this year".
China’s trade plunges, down by billion
Government figures show a 12.3 per cent decline in imports, and a 14.6 per cent drop in exports. China’s trade surplus shrank by 62.6 per cent. Chinese analysts blame weak global demand and the appreciation of the dollar against other currencies. The trend in lower economic growth is expected to continue in 2015.
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China’s imports and exports fall again
The trade surplus is up, but imports plunge. Although the government targeted domestic demand, the latter dropped. By neglecting workers’ wages and rights, spending has been negatively affected. Brexit is set to reduce export prospects to the European Union.
September imports drop to under 20.4%
Imports and exports drop for 11t h consecutive month. Fears for equity markets and Chinese markets. Analysts predict a massive government intervention to stem unemployment and declining purchasing power.
Regular wage hikes planned in Guangdong
The authorities want to avoid the impoverishment of low-income households from inflation, but employers fear labour costs are already too high. Meanwhile exports drop as direct foreign investments rise. For experts this trend could lead to speculation.
Economic development needs structural adjustments
This was revealed by an economic planning executive. The liberalization of coal prices is on the agenda, as well as increased energy production. But more attention will also be paid to agricultural incomes and production.
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