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    » 02/12/2014, 00.00

    CHINA

    China, surprise record trade balance for January: more than 31.9 billion dollars



    Analysts express doubts, Beijing may have been distorted data by multiplying fake trade with Hong Kong. The authorities defended themselves: "The merit of the Lunar New Year, which traditionally is the best commercial time of year”.

    Beijing ( AsiaNews / Agencies) - Contrary to forecasts and analysis, the Chinese trade balance recorded a surplus in January, of 31.9 billion dollars, much higher than both the 25.6 billion in December 2013 and 23.7 billion estimates. Exports surged by 10.6 % annually in January (compared to forecast of 2%) imports also increasing (+10%), the biggest figure since last July. The value of imports grew at a pace that has not been seen since July. Imports of crude oil, iron ore and copper have all reached record levels, according to customs data.

    The data released by the Customs Bureau, caught markets off guard and reduced fears of a slowdown in the world's second largest economy, reported by all recently published indicators. Analysts, however, express caution, noting that the numbers could be inflated by a series of fictitious transactions to bring money back into the country bypassing the foreign exchange regulator. In particular, there is a major discrepancy in import-export figures with Hong Kong.

    Authorities defend their figures and point to the beginning of the Lunar Year, which falls in some years in January and others in February, as the real positive variable. The New Year means an increase in domestic spending, industrial production offsets without exceeding demand and the internal movements of goods and people increases. The main result is that the Yuan remains under pressure for further appreciation. Some analysts say the barrier of 6.0 - up to 5.98 yuan per dollar - could be broken in 2014.

    Louis Kujis, chief economist at RBS in Hong Kong, observes: "This should make markets more relaxed about both global demand and demand in China's own economy. However, we are also left with a nagging feeling that perhaps issues such as over-invoicing have risen sharply in intensity early this year".

     

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    See also

    13/04/2015 CHINA
    China’s trade plunges, down by billion
    Government figures show a 12.3 per cent decline in imports, and a 14.6 per cent drop in exports. China’s trade surplus shrank by 62.6 per cent. Chinese analysts blame weak global demand and the appreciation of the dollar against other currencies. The trend in lower economic growth is expected to continue in 2015.

    08/08/2016 14:49:00 CHINA
    China’s imports and exports fall again

    The trade surplus is up, but imports plunge. Although the government targeted domestic demand, the latter dropped. By neglecting workers’ wages and rights, spending has been negatively affected. Brexit is set to reduce export prospects to the European Union.



    13/10/2015 CHINA
    September imports drop to under 20.4%
    Imports and exports drop for 11t h consecutive month. Fears for equity markets and Chinese markets. Analysts predict a massive government intervention to stem unemployment and declining purchasing power.

    12/07/2008 CHINA
    Regular wage hikes planned in Guangdong
    The authorities want to avoid the impoverishment of low-income households from inflation, but employers fear labour costs are already too high. Meanwhile exports drop as direct foreign investments rise. For experts this trend could lead to speculation.

    04/01/2006 CHINA
    Economic development needs structural adjustments

    This was revealed by an economic planning executive. The liberalization of coal prices is on the agenda, as well as increased energy production. But more attention will also be paid to agricultural incomes and production.





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