Teheran (AsiaNews) – Streets are crowded with supporters of one or the other candidate, cars are decorated with the colours and banners of the different political groups and the national flag, hundreds of journalists have flocked from over 44 nations. Iran is ready to vote, this Friday June 12th, for its next President of the Republic. An important vote, not only for stability in the Middle East, but also for the enthusiasm accompanying the polls which has led to a participation not seen since the devolution of 1979. “Record participation” is forecast, says Kamran Daneshjoo, president of the election commission, to the news agency ISNA. The Ministry for Internal Affairs says 46.2 million people are eligible to vote in 45,713 polling stations. Five cities in Turkey have also had stations set up.
There are only two real candidates in the race for the Presidency: current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former premier Hossein Mousavi, described as representing the opposing conservative and reformist groups. Forecasters unanimously agree that they will be the candidates in competition at the run-offs on the 19th, if no one candidate reaches the 50% plus one majority needed to win.
According to parliament member Ghodratollah Alikhani, in an interview with the opposition on line news agency Rooz, the enthusiasm surrounding the vote leads to the conclusion that “Mousavi will win by a large margin”. But Amir Taheri, an Iranian journalists forced to live in exile, writes in an article for Asharq Alawsat that the result is far from secure. He underlines that in reality the highest power in the country is not the president but the Supreme Guide, the ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and as a result if Khameni indicates Ahmadinejad once again, a vote against the current president would mean a vote against the Supreme Guide.
Four years ago, continues the article, Ahmadinejad was not Khamenei’s “first choice”, support for him only arrived at the run-off. But over these past years, a close relationship has developed between the two and Ahmadinejad has earned some admiration, albeit “grudgingly given”.
Two possible scenarios therefore, appear likely. In the first, Khamenei is convinced that Ahmadinejad has done his duty and now needs to go home. In favour of the current president is his having revitalised the regime in the past four years and held the US and their allies in check over the country’s nuclear program, so much so, that Obama has been forced to rethink the policies favoured by Bush. But Ahamadinejad has the defect of never being satisfied and lacks’ self control. Moreover he is convinced that the era of the US as a superpower is over. The search for an accord with Washington is thus rendered useless. Khamenei does not seem to share in this conviction and could instead be favourable to a partial agreement with the US. And this could lead to his turning his back on Ahmadinejad, with the resulting consequences for international politics.
If this is not the Supreme Guides intention, the nit could indeed be the Iranian people themselves who send Ahmadinejad packing. But, and this is the second scenario, in order to achieve this aim, the population would not only have to vote exclusively for Mousavi, but also find a couple of million volunteers to leave in polling stations while the votes are being counted, to avoid the “manipulation” of the results. Something similar happened in 1997 when Muhammad Kathami was elected against the Khamenei candidate Nateq-Nuri.
What is different is that at the time Kathami was popular Nateq-Nuri was not, none of Ahmadinejad opponents seem popular.
Then of no less importance is the concern expressed by Abdol-Karim Lahidji, the Vice-president of the French based International Federation of Human Right Leagues. Himself Iranian, a prominent lawyer who was forced to leave his homeland on 1980, he has asked the candidates to the presidency to “not forget the promises”, made during their election campaign on human rights issues. “Even though I am not very hopeful in this regard,” he quickly adds.
