» 08/10/2011 14:22 CHINA Global crisis no impact yet on Chinese exports, a record in July Surplus of 31.5 billion dollars in trade with foreign countries, a 2 year record, appreciation of the Yuan, a 17 year record. But it is expected that the global crisis will affect exports in the coming months. Beijing says it is ready to change its "economic priorities", but calls for global control of individual countries.
Beijing (AsiaNews / Agencies) - China has achieved a surplus in trade with foreign countries of 31.5 billion dollars in July, a two year record. But experts believe it "very likely" that exports will be affected the in the coming months, following the crisis in the U.S., Europe and Japan, major Chinese markets. Beijing is ready to rethink its economic priorities and to help the struggling economies, but calls for more control over global economic policies of individual countries.
Exports totaled 175.1 billion US dollars in July (+17.9% compared to June) compared with 143.6 billion in imports (also an increase of 19.3% from June). The surplus for China was 22.3 billion in June and 28.7 billion in May.
The Yuan is also climbing against the dollar, albeit with restraint, and today reached the exchange rate of 6.4120, a 17 year maximum. However, experts agree that exports will decline in coming months, following the debt crisis affecting the United States and Europe and Japan for permanent difficulties after the earthquake and tsunami of a few months ago.
Hong Kong's well-known economist Wang Tao has warned, in short, that "slower growth in U.S. and Europe means slower growth for Chinese exports".
The Chinese manufacturing firms are concerned about a decline in exports in these summer months a period that usually sees an increases in demand linked to the Christmas orders and are waiting for September to take stock.
In another aspect, the same U.S. Federal Reserve admitted yesterday that the country's economic growth is much lower than expected. A comment suggesting that U.S. inflation will remain contained in the near future. This could allow Washington to push ahead with economic stimulus initiatives, but the situation remains uncertain given the strong contrasts between the political parties.
Even so, China must now review its development model based on the anticipation of continued growth in exports. Yesterday, Premier Wen Jiabao said that China should rethink the economic priorities of the country and find a balance "between inflation and maintaining economic growth and the readjustment of our economic structure."
A great unknown remains Beijing’s monetary policy, if it will allow a more robust appreciation of the yuan, or if its fluctuations will remain contained as in recent years. Many analysts believe that an appreciation would contain domestic inflation, with the consequent reduction in prices of imported goods, but others oppose this would affect Chinese exports.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank of China, excludes any possibility of this and says that "we can not throw gasoline on the fire in global markets."
However, Beijing is in favor of joint efforts to address national crisis and says it is ready to support them but warns that it wants more international interventionism in the economic policies of individual states. Yesterday, the Chinese State Council said that China supports the group of G20 to stabilize the market, but has also pushed for greater international coordination on macroeconomic controls, on the individual countries.
