Paris (AsiaNews) – Voting for Shiite religious leaders is a normal reaction to decades of dictatorship "because Iraqis see them as the only people who can represent them", this according to Saywan Barzani, Kurdish representative in Europe based in Paris. In fact, Mr Barzani is not surprised by the results of the December 15 elections.

"It was expected that Shiite leaders would get more votes than the Sunnis or Allawi," he said. "But things can change in the future."

With about 90 per cent of ballots counted, the United Iraqi Alliance, a coalition of Shiite parties led by current Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, is poised to take 58 per cent of the vote in Baghdad, the country's largest electoral district. That is 1.4 million votes and 59 of the 230 seats elected by region (another 45 seats will be assigned according to the overall national vote).

In the capital, the Iraqi Accord Front, the main Sunni group, has come in second place with about 450,000 votes or 19 per cent.

The Iraqi National List of former interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi is third with just over 325,000 votes or 14 per cent.

According to the Iraqi Election Commission, the United Iraqi Alliance—this includes the Islamic Dawa Party and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI)—is also leading in the governorates of Babil (Babylon), al-Karbala, an-Najaf, Dhi Qar, Maysan and al-Basrah.

Preliminary results give the Kurdistan Alliance first place in Dahuk, Arbil and As-Sulaymaniyah.

Allawi's Iraqi National List—which includes Shiite and Sunni parties—is second in southern Iraq and third in Baghdad after the group of Sunni leader Adnan Al-Dulaimi, who said he was open to a coalition government.

In two of the three Kurdish governorates, the Kurdistan Islamic Union has come in second.

If al-Jaafari's Alliance wins a two third majority in the new assembly, it could block any government. This is a great concern to Allawi who wants to get back in the prime minister's office.

Some analysts have stressed that a stranglehold by Shiite parties could jeopardise the role Sunni parties might play and further polarise the country.

But for Saywan Barzani, nephew of Kurdistan Democratic Party leader Massoud Barzani, "no single party can think of governing alone" given Iraq's ethno-religious make-up and its federal system of government.

"Whatever the outcome, the new government will have to follow a path of co-operation," he said.