Putin announces his candidacy for president. He will perhaps give the premiership to Medvedev
by Nina Achmatova
The powerful premier could govern until 2024, beating the record for the longest-lived leadership of Russia. At risk the "democracy in tandem": Czar Vlad foresees hard times for the country and no longer has confidence in the former Dauphin. Proposed as a possible new prime minister, Medvedev has already encountered opposition from the Minister of Finance and skepticism from analysts.
Moscow (AsiaNews) - Although expected and predicted by many, the renewal of Vladimir Putin's candidacy to the Kremlin has caused turmoil and agitation in Russia. The news – in response to which a negative reaction from the markets is expected today - apparently has caught uprepared even the leaders of the United Russia party. The party, which has always been led by the powerful prime minister, on September 24 welcomed the announcement, while remaining surprised by the contextual nomination of current president Dmitri Medvedev to the head spot in the December 4 parliamentary ballot.
Analysts already expect Czar Vlad - after his virtually guaranteed victory at the polls in March 2012 - will remain on the ruler's chair until at least 2024. After serving as president from 2000 to 2008, Putin ceded the position to Dmitri Medvedev, because of his ineligibility to reapply for a third consecutive term, according to the Constitution, though he remained the de facto leader of the country.
After rumors, suspicions and false alarms, at the Congress of United Russia last Saturday, the duo went one further: it has revealed, according to analysts, what will be the mechanism chosen to ensure a long life for so-called 'Putinism'. The proposal is for a real exchange of roles: the strong man of Russia returns to the Kremlin and offers the former Dauphin the role of prime minister, which he occupied until the 2008 elections.
In addition to indicating a rare, but disturbing, political stability in the Federation, behind the ironclad pact between the two members of the tandem lies the prospect of a sort of hereditary dictatorship that would transform the former KGB agent into the longest-serving leader in Russian history. According to political analyst Vyacheslav Nikonov, the Putin-Medvedev tandem could even stay in the saddle until 2036. In fact, Putin could even apply in 2018 for a second term, serving until the age of 72, and Medvedev, with yet another relay, might succeed him in 2024 for another 12 years, thanks to the constitutional provision changed a few years ago, that increased the presidential mandate from 4 to 6 years.
The end of the "tandem-democracy"
For other observers, however, Czar Vlad's return to the presidency will mark exactly the opposite: the end of the "democracy in tandem". At the Convention of United Russia, Medvedev and Putin explained to the audience that the decision on the 2012 presidential candidacy had been made back in 2007 and that the mystery kept on who would have held the role of head of State was only one of "political expediency." According to the information website Newsru.ru, the announcement confirms that the Medvedev presidency, which had raised hopes for change in both economy and liberal in politics, "was nothing but a charade." In agreement is Gleb Pavlovsky, a political adviser recently fired from the Kremlin: "What we're looking at is the capitulation of the presidency, be it voluntary or involuntary." And he attacks: "It remains a singular event that the post of head of state of a nuclear power passes from one hand to another based on a private agreement" and not free elections, the political analyst said to the website Gazeta.ru.
For the liberal President, author of the reset with the United States and of a policy aimed at easing the state's presence in the economy, the situation is still a failure. Analysts and people close to the presidential administration, quoted by the authoritative Vedemosti, say that until mid-August the decision of who would be the stronger candidate between the two had not been made because of the strong competition that had arisen between the two factions that supported their respective leaders. The same sources say they are skeptical about the possibility of Medvedev serving once more as prime minister and indicate in finance minister Aleksei Kudrin, a Putin loyalist, the new possible prime minister. The current head of state could be granted, at most, the post of President of United Russia, and the scenario seems real when one considers the reaction on the one hand of Medvedev's economic adviser, Arkady Dvorkovich, who wrote on Twitter "There is nothing to rejoice about" and on the other, of Kudrin himself, who immediately declared that he was "unwilling" to work in a government led by the former czarist dauphin, now become too independent.
According to Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent analyst based in Moscow, Putin's move is a sign that "the current prime minister expects serious economic and social problems in the country and cannot count on a relationship of trust within the tandem." According to Oreshkin, "Putin has decided that the prospect of the presidency's six years was too long to remain in the background".
And concerns about strong social tensions spread among both the opposition and human rights defenders. Fueled by the severe economic crisis and frustration over a corrupt and authoritarian system that perpetuates itself indefinitely, the masses, warned Gennady Gudkova, a deputy of the faction Just Russia, could rise up in a revolution within three years. And as some historians recall, political changes in Russia have always occurred in a violent way.
Analysts already expect Czar Vlad - after his virtually guaranteed victory at the polls in March 2012 - will remain on the ruler's chair until at least 2024. After serving as president from 2000 to 2008, Putin ceded the position to Dmitri Medvedev, because of his ineligibility to reapply for a third consecutive term, according to the Constitution, though he remained the de facto leader of the country.
After rumors, suspicions and false alarms, at the Congress of United Russia last Saturday, the duo went one further: it has revealed, according to analysts, what will be the mechanism chosen to ensure a long life for so-called 'Putinism'. The proposal is for a real exchange of roles: the strong man of Russia returns to the Kremlin and offers the former Dauphin the role of prime minister, which he occupied until the 2008 elections.
In addition to indicating a rare, but disturbing, political stability in the Federation, behind the ironclad pact between the two members of the tandem lies the prospect of a sort of hereditary dictatorship that would transform the former KGB agent into the longest-serving leader in Russian history. According to political analyst Vyacheslav Nikonov, the Putin-Medvedev tandem could even stay in the saddle until 2036. In fact, Putin could even apply in 2018 for a second term, serving until the age of 72, and Medvedev, with yet another relay, might succeed him in 2024 for another 12 years, thanks to the constitutional provision changed a few years ago, that increased the presidential mandate from 4 to 6 years.
The end of the "tandem-democracy"
For other observers, however, Czar Vlad's return to the presidency will mark exactly the opposite: the end of the "democracy in tandem". At the Convention of United Russia, Medvedev and Putin explained to the audience that the decision on the 2012 presidential candidacy had been made back in 2007 and that the mystery kept on who would have held the role of head of State was only one of "political expediency." According to the information website Newsru.ru, the announcement confirms that the Medvedev presidency, which had raised hopes for change in both economy and liberal in politics, "was nothing but a charade." In agreement is Gleb Pavlovsky, a political adviser recently fired from the Kremlin: "What we're looking at is the capitulation of the presidency, be it voluntary or involuntary." And he attacks: "It remains a singular event that the post of head of state of a nuclear power passes from one hand to another based on a private agreement" and not free elections, the political analyst said to the website Gazeta.ru.
For the liberal President, author of the reset with the United States and of a policy aimed at easing the state's presence in the economy, the situation is still a failure. Analysts and people close to the presidential administration, quoted by the authoritative Vedemosti, say that until mid-August the decision of who would be the stronger candidate between the two had not been made because of the strong competition that had arisen between the two factions that supported their respective leaders. The same sources say they are skeptical about the possibility of Medvedev serving once more as prime minister and indicate in finance minister Aleksei Kudrin, a Putin loyalist, the new possible prime minister. The current head of state could be granted, at most, the post of President of United Russia, and the scenario seems real when one considers the reaction on the one hand of Medvedev's economic adviser, Arkady Dvorkovich, who wrote on Twitter "There is nothing to rejoice about" and on the other, of Kudrin himself, who immediately declared that he was "unwilling" to work in a government led by the former czarist dauphin, now become too independent.
According to Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent analyst based in Moscow, Putin's move is a sign that "the current prime minister expects serious economic and social problems in the country and cannot count on a relationship of trust within the tandem." According to Oreshkin, "Putin has decided that the prospect of the presidency's six years was too long to remain in the background".
And concerns about strong social tensions spread among both the opposition and human rights defenders. Fueled by the severe economic crisis and frustration over a corrupt and authoritarian system that perpetuates itself indefinitely, the masses, warned Gennady Gudkova, a deputy of the faction Just Russia, could rise up in a revolution within three years. And as some historians recall, political changes in Russia have always occurred in a violent way.
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