Seoul (AsiaNews) – A power struggle is under way in North Korea between the country’s top military leadership and Kim Jong-il’s family whose outcome remains unpredictable, Prof Thomas Hong-Soon Han told AsiaNews. For the professor emeritus in international studies at Seoul’s Hankuk University, “it is indispensable” to keep the door open to “negotiations with Pyongyang,” either bilaterally or within the framework of the six-nation talks, to guarantee the region’s balance of power.
Professor Han, who is also member of the Pontifical Council for the Laity, confirmed reports that tensions are running high within the North Korean leadership, with Kim Jong-il and military leaders on opposite sides, a situation whose outcome is hard to predict.
In the past few months, the Dear Leader’s third son, 26-year-old Kim Jong-un, has become a serious candidate for the succession, but “appears too young to govern.”
In recent days, Kim Jong-il was able to get the constitution changed. The reference to Communism was removed, replaced by ‘Socialism’, and ‘military-first policies’ were strengthened as the cornerstone of the country’s orientation. Under the new dispensation, power is concentrated in the hands of the chairman of the National Defence Commission, i.e. Kim Jong-il himself. Soldiers join workers, farmers and working intellectuals as one of the key pillars of the nation.
“Kim Il-sung had many years to prepare the transition.” His son , the dear Leader, “does not seem to have enough time” because of his health problems, “and this despite the fact the designated heir is backed by a charismatic figure like Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law Jang Song-thaek, currently number 2 in the party. This is not enough to guarantee stability to the transition process.”
No one, not even in the South, expects the regime to collapse, if for no other reason that it would “spell disaster” for the balance of power on the peninsula.
For Professor Han, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak’s policy towards the North reflects “public opinion,” ordinary South Koreans want the government to show resolve. Most agree to providing aid to the North, but on the condition that it goes to the people, not to the leadership or for the “nuclear programme.”
The tensions and military exercises of the last few months are an attempt by Pyongyang to “show off its strength and flex its muscles, when in fact it is in a position of weakness” and can rely only on the atomic bomb to blackmail the international community.
The six-nation talks on Pyongyang’s nuclear programme, which include North and South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and the United States, and Pyongyang’s attempts to engage Washington bilaterally remain high on the agenda. The latter has also set off alarm bells in Beijing and renewed closer relations between North Korea and its historical ally, China.
“The point is to keep communication channels open,” said Thomas Han. “If the goal is the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, any useful channel is good. This is a long-term perspective and we must understand who our interlocutor will be after power is transfered.” (DS)
