Jerusalem (AsiaNews) – Instability and insecurity define the current situation in the Holy Land. On the eve of the Palestinian presidential elections no one can predict the reactions of the Palestinian resistance still committed to the armed struggle.

On the Israeli side, the fate of the Sharon government remains uncertain after sections of his party expressed disapproval for his policies.

The reaction of Israel's extreme right is worrying because it is well-armed. Israel's secret services are concerned of possible attacks against Sharon's life or the Temple Mountain to stop the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

Sharon however remains confident and pledges that 2005 will be a turning point for peace between the two peoples.

The Palestinians

Palestinians are getting ready for their presidential elections scheduled for January 9, 2005. Mahmoud Abbas, also known as 'Abu Mazen' is expected to win. Currently, he is the successor of the late Yasser Arafat as chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO). The post is important because the PLO represents the Palestinian people on the world stage.

Abu Mazen is seeking the presidency of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), the quasi-state set up ten years ago in parts of the Occupied Territories after Israeli military authorities delegated substantial administrative responsibilities in accordance with the Oslo accords.

Arafat too held the two offices plus the chairmanship of Fatah, the PLO's main political party. Faruk Kaddoumi, an unreconstructed opponent of the Olso accords, is now Fatah's new chairman. Alone among Fatah's leaders, he has refused to return to the Occupied Territories preferring to stay in Tunisia where he serve as the PLO's 'Foreign Minister'.

Abu Mazen's victory seems certain, especially after the only serious challenger, Marwan Barghouti, pulled out. Surveys had showed Barghouti and Abu Mazen running neck and neck.

Barghouti has emerged as the anti-establishment candidate, popular among younger Palestinians and those who received little or no personal or economic benefits from the Olso accords.

Behind the scene, some observers say that Barghouti's absence makes the electoral less democratic since the outcome is predictable. Among both Palestinians and Israelis, many have not failed to compare how Israel and the US insisted on 'democracy' and 'transparency' in Palestinian politics only to be too happy to see the popular Barghouti excluded from the race.

It is true that Marwan Barghouti, head of the Tanzim armed militia and the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade, is serving five life sentences in Israel. But his supporters, who now must take a low profile, do not think that is an obstacle in and of itself.

Two of Israel's former Prime Ministers led organisations that carried out terrorist acts at the time of the British mandate in Palestine: the late Menachem Begin, former head of the Irgun and Yitzhak Shamir, a former leader of the  'Stern Gang' which he later turned into 'Lehi'—Lohamei Herut Israel—Fighters for the Freedom of Israel).

Nelson Mandela, leader of the African National Congress, was himself jailed only to be freed when the Afrikaners decided to talk peace.

More importantly, Barghouti remains one of the strongest supporters of peace with Israel in exchange for the Palestinian territories occupied in 1967.

Never the less, since Abu Mazen is the only effective candidate that is welcomed by both Israel and the US, it must be hoped that with him as PNA president Israel will return to the negotiating table to hammer out the long hoped-for deal that would bring to a close the bloody conflict in the Holy Land.

The Israelis

Right now, it is Israel that has a problem with its own government. Dumped by all its coalition partners, Prime Minister Sharon can count only on two thirds of his 40-strong parliamentary caucus (Likud holds 40 of the Knesset's 120 seats). The remaining Likud MKs oppose his decision to pull troops and settlers out of the Gaza Strip by 2005.

If the current negotiations with the Labour party and smaller religious parties do not lead to a new coalition government, elections with their unpredictable results are inevitable for the Spring and Summer 2005.

What's more, Sharon and his sons remain under police investigation for financial misdeed. Although he avoided trail on some allegations, the State Attorney's Office is still pursuing him on others. Should he be formally indicted, it is difficult to see how he could keep his post.

If he were to leave, a great and dangerous vacuum would be created in Israeli politics. All his likely successors in the Likud are less moderate and might cancel the withdrawal plan from the Gaza Strip.

The two peoples

But what views do Palestinians and Israelis 'share'?  Surveys show that most Palestinians and Israelis want peace based on mutual recognition. But everyone is convinced that popular support is not enough and that a clear and decisive intervention from the outside is needed.

The latest hope is in British Prime Minister Tony Blair's proposal to convene an international peace conference, proposal that was warmly welcomed by Palestinians, less so by the Israelis and Americans.

Some observers think that Sharon's plan to withdraw from Gaza (and perhaps from some northern parts of the West Bank) will be followed by a long and intense period of Israeli colonisation in other parts of the West Bank (the so-called settlement blocks US president Bush approved in his April 14 letter to Sharon). This would inevitably put peace negotiations off to an undetermined date.

In the end, everything seems unpredictable, hanging on a thread, everyone's state of mind dominated by inconsistency, uncertainty, unpredictability.

Still, as Fr David Jaeger, a Franciscan of the Holy Land, puts it, this is privileged moment for a believer to reaffirm his or her faith in the 'absolute future of humanity which is God incarnated in Jesus Christ'.

What better way to express on the eve of Christmas in 2004 Christians' profound faith in the Holy Land.