Beijing (AsiaNews/C-Fam) – The one child policy is a “slow humanitarian tragedy” because the falling birth rates “directly threatens the possibility of future development for the country”. The prominent demographer Nicholas Eberstadt launched a strong warning during the World Economic Forum in Dalian, a traditional encounter of the worlds leading academics.
This policy was defined as “a tragically historic error” and the government can only avoid the imminent tragedy by abandoning it “immediately and without reserves”. According to studies carried out by Eberstadt, by 2015 China’s working-age population of 15-64 year olds will be in a prolonged decline and in a generation, China's labour force will likely be smaller than it is today. Between 2005 and 2030, China's 15-24-year-old population will decrease and face a projected 20% decline. By 2030, China’s 65-plus cohort could more than double, topping 235 million.
Beyond the general aging of the population, the current policy is creating a revolution within the traditional family unit, which the government seeks to base on the model "4-2-1”: 4 grandparents, 2 parents and 1 child. But China has no clear pension system and moreover, because of its culture and social organisation for over 2,500 years children have always cared for their ageing parents. With the falling birth rates this will become increasingly difficult, given that young couples will have to take care of 4 parents.
What’s more is that the one child policy privileges male children, which has created a serious imbalance between the sexes. 123 male children are born to every 100 female. In less than one generation – the academic has forecast – their will be a surplus of tens of millions of young men compared to women of the same age.
Beijing justifies this policy, which denies the fundamental right of being able to choose the number of children, by pointing to the need to combat poverty and conserve natural resources. But Eberstadt concludes that the only way to combat the crises is to immediately abandon this policy and counter poverty through an improved distribution of resources and wealth, thus to be able to better exploit the potential of human resources, instead of forcibly reducing the population.
Experts observe that many Chinese demographers agree with this analysis, but are “reluctant” to openly criticise the government.