Bisignani called it “the most difficult situation the [airline] industry has faced” and speaks of “a survival course. Optimists forecast a recovery by the end of the year; pessimists say that’s a mirage. I am a realist; I see no data that supports optimism”.
Worst losses in 2009, equal to 3.3 billion, are expected in the Asia-Pacific region, where the business sector flights have had a huge impact on losses as well as transport of goods. The Middle East has a total loss of 1.5 billion.
Losses for 2008 were also worse than their original forecast, for a total of 10.4 billion rather than the estimated 8.5. As a direct result of this by the end of 2009, airlines will have dropped 20 billion dollars in two years. The sector was already suffering, with 41.6 billion in losses accrued between 2001 and 2006. The companies benefited from the sharp drop in oil prices, but were hit by the decreasing number of passengers estimated to have dropped by 8% in 2009. Goods transport is said to be down 17%. The situation looks set to worsen given the forecast of an imminent hike in oil prices. Swine flu has also affected the sector.
Bisignani says the effects of the crisis is worse than the impact of the 9/11 attacks in 2001 on New York’s Twin Towers, when airline profits dipped by 7% and took 3 years to recover. Now an “unprecedented” loss of up to 15% is expected, translating into a fall out of 80 billion.
IATA believes that any hope for recovery will need “a drastic reshaping by partners, governments and industry. We cannot bear the cost of government micro-regulation, crazy taxation and partners abusing their monopoly power”.