Here is an analysis by Tint Swe, member of the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB), which was set up by Myanmar exiles in the wake of the 1990 elections won by the National League for Democracy, but never recognised by the military.
After fleeing to India in 1990, and taking up residence in New Delhi on 21 December 1991, he became the NCGUB information minister responsible for South Asia and East Timor.
Signals of optimism are coming from all corners, but when it comes to Burma, there are four strategically important nations and blocs, namely China, ASEAN, India as well as America and the European Union, whose views must be taken into consideration. Hence, the news might seem good and full of hope. It is something like the days when Aung San Suu Kyi was first freed from house arrest in 1995. It is wise however to point out what happened in the 14 years that followed her release: generals remained on top, prisoners went to jail, Aung San Suu Kyi was kept in her home; in short, no changes.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) welcomed a new US policy of engagement with Burma and the sixteen leaders attending the fourth East Asia Summit in Thailand agreed to encourage the regime to ensure a fair general election in 2010. ASEAN leaders are fans of the military junta. They easily accept the excuses given by their Burmese counterpart.
However, when Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said that Suu Kyi might be able to play an active role in society and possibly, in politics again, he was using a diplomatic expression that can be interpreted as meaning “no”.
Still, all participants were overwhelmed as Burma’s prime minister said that the ruling junta saw a role for Aung San Suu Kyi in the process of reconciliation leading up to elections in 2010.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh spoke of an atmosphere of hope and said that next year's elections are a sign of reconciliation of the various segments of Myanmar society.
After meeting with his Burmese counterpart, China's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao also expressed confidence and pledged more financial aid to Burma.
Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee rightly said that political reforms and national reconciliation should be expedited and must involve all stakeholders.
However, Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD) called for reforms to the constitution the junta unilaterally adopted in the middle of last year’s devastating cyclone Nargis. Even without changes to the constitution, the junta may still invite NLD at last minute. Only then would ASEAN leaders have anything good to say, as they did last Sunday in Thailand.
US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell will be travel to India for consultation before the second round of talks with Myanmar’s State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) starts.
Meanwhile, India is taking credit for all good news regarding Burma. In a report, it claims that former Indian foreign secretaries were able to convince the US to accept engagement with Myanmar. The report also said that India passed high-level messages from the junta to the US.
Before Campbell announced this week that the US would work closely with India and China regarding Myanmar, the United States during the Bush administration had already tried to work with the United Nations and Burma’s two big neighbours.
Still, India knows very well that with regard to next year’s election, the military regime will not meet ASEAN’s expectations and the NLD’s legitimate demands. Instead, India is likely to urge the US to engage Burma independently of the elections.
In the end, Indian and ASEAN leaders will be satisfied with the junta’s words about softening the terms of Aung San Suu Kyi’s house arrest. Maybe, she will be allowed to see her physician and lawyers a couple of times more.
For some, there might be euphoria, but it will not lead Burma anywhere.
(Nirmala Carvalho contributed to this article)