Titled Reaching the Tipping Point? Climate Change and Poverty in Tajikistan, the Oxfam report was released on 17 February. It concluded that a socio-economic disaster could be avoided only if farmers adapt to the changing situation, insisting on the fact that climate change was the country’s main challenge.
According to its findings, nearly 1.5 million people in Tajikistan are already experiencing food insecurity. “Droughts are increasing and temperatures are rising. Harvests are failing for lack of water. Entire swaths of the rural population of Tajikistan have already suffered greatly in recent years, barely able to feed their families," said Andy Baker, Oxfam's country director for Tajikistan.
The situation is likely to last for years and rural communities must organise themselves to face the permanent emergency in the absence of action by the central government, already unable to do much.
The report identifies water and food storage facilities, along with the provision of assistance to farmers to buy and develop drought-resistant seeds and crops, as central to avoid this bleak future. This is especially important since roughly 70 per cent of Tajikistan's population lives in rural areas.
“Glaciers in Tajikistan are retreating,” Baker noted. If they “continue to retreat, and the country experiences more extreme weather, countless people will be dealt an even harder blow”. What is more, “There could even be a dangerous ripple effect across Central Asia”.
“If nothing is done, all the glaciers will melt and I don't know if we will have water in 20 years," the report quoted Natalya Mirzokhonova, a specialist at the Information Management and Analytical Centre at Tajikistan's Committee for Emergency Situations and Civil Defence, as saying.