Hong Kong (AsiaNews /
Agencies) - In 2012 and 2013, Asia will grow
much less than expected so far. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised
its forecast downward, noting the reduction in global demand and China and India's difficulties in
transforming their economies still too focused on exporting.
Forecasts made available today speak of an expansion in Asia - excluding Japan - of 6.1%
(it was 6.6 in
July, last year was 7.2). Forecasts for inflation is around 4.2% (in July,
4.4).
Among the causes for the slowdown, ADB cites the problems of sovereign debt in
the euro area and increasingly bitter fiscal problems in the United States. These, in turn, have
resulted in lower growth in China,
Japan, and even in South Korea. Chinese
manufacturers - and the services sector registered a contraction, Japanese
industries are increasingly pessimistic; Korean export is also down.
According to the ADB, the Chinese growth for 2012 is 7.7 and next year 8.1
(April this year the predictions were 8.5, and 8.7), India is set at 5.6 in 2012 and 6.7 in 2013 (previously 7.0
and 7.5).
The bank reaffirms stable growth of 5.2 in Southeast Asia, driven primarily by Thailand which is recovering from last year's
floods, and mostly public spending in Malaysia
and the Philippines.
According to the ADB, domestic demand needs to grow, given the decline of the
global economy. In addition, governments should focus on educational reforms,
improving infrastructure and on simplification of regulations, to improve the
services sector. To date (in 2009), this sector contributes to 50% of the
region's GDP and employs 34% of the labor force of the Asian countries in the
developing world.