Gregory

A new traffic system for private vehicles goes into effect tomorrow in Myanmar to address cuts in fuel imports due to the Mideast war. Electric vehicles are exempt. The EV sector is dominated by companies linked to General Min Aung Hlaing's family, while blackouts continue across the country.

General Min Aung Hlaing announced the gesture for National Farmers' Day, but Aung San Suu Kyi is not among them and thousands of people remain in prison. The army also continued to carry out bombings against civilians. The initiative comes at a time of internal tensions within the junta and while ASEAN remains divided on how to handle the Burmese crisis.

The junta’s leader is getting ready to formally step down from his military command to assume the presidency in the new government that will take office in April. The creation of a powerful consultative council could allow him to maintain control over the regime. Meanwhile, his deputy, General Soe Win, is emerging as a key figure in relations with China.

Naypyidaw's measure against the chargé d'affaires in Dili follows the opening of legal proceedings for alleged war crimes committed by the Burmese army. It is the first time that a court in a country belonging to the regional bloc has taken legal action against another member state. The affair highlights the deep divisions within the organization, split between those calling for greater pressure and those who want a rapprochement after the controversial elections.

In the past weeks, Myanmar’s junta continued its campaign against villages, markets, and monasteries, through digital surveillance as well. While the military claims that it is using “precision” weapons, medical staff and eyewitnesses report an increase in lethality. General Min Aung Hlaing visited the conflict zones in Sagaing, a sign that things might escalate soon.

Crucial to the economy but ignored in public debate: workers who fled Myanmar were not among the topics of the latest election campaign. With the victory of Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and his conservative Bhumjaithai party, many expect to see their situation legalised, after work permits were approved last year for refugees in refugee camps to replace Cambodian migrants.

Civilians are hit in airstrikes in several regions of the country on the eve of the last phase of voting organised by the military junta. In the village of Kawngjar, Kachin State, an attack left at least 22 dead during a funeral prayer. Other raids struck Magway and Sagaing. Condemned by much of the international community, the electoral process was marred by intimidations, while areas controlled by resistance forces were excluded from voting.

A human rights organisation has filed a complaint in Dili against Myanmar’s military junta for crimes against humanity. The choice of East Timor, a recent ASEAN member with its own history of occupation and violence, opens a new legal front in Southeast Asia. Myanmar’s military have responded with a diplomatic protest, accusing East Timor of violating the principle of non-interference enshrined in the ASEAN Charter.

The second phase of the general elections promoted by Myanmar's military junta took place on 11 January. Voting also reached disputed areas and conflict zones, where the military threatened civilians and made accusations of coercion. According to the United Nations and independent observers, the process lacks democratic credibility and represents an attempt to gain international legitimacy for a regime that continues to rule by force.

The general in charge of the Kawthoolei Army (KTLA), one of the militias fighting against the military junta, recently announced the birth of the ‘Republic of Kawthoolei’ on the border with Thailand. The move divides the Karen people and has been criticised because it risks weakening the anti-junta front in the civil war, at an already very delicate moment for the resistance.

Special Envoy for Asian Affairs Deng Xijun said that the vote (to guarantee Chinese interests) was a condition Xi Jinping imposed on Min Aung Hlaing. The results from the first round on 28 December released by Myanmar’s military regime confirm the expected victory by a wide margin for the military-backed party. In Myanmar, however, China is walking a tightrope, continuing to support ethnic militias that control border areas.

The first phase of the military elections is marked by allegations of fraud, electronic voting malfunctions and popular boycotts. The USDP party was declared the winner before the polls opened. The management highlighted the junta's limited control amid arrests, internet blackouts and the absence of credible international observers.