Paul Dakiki

Hariri hands in his resignation as prime minister-designate to Lebanon’s president after failing to form a national unity government. Divisions between majority and opposition as well as within the majority prevail.

A woman is killed in clashes; two other people are wounded. Security services downplay the incident. Hariri gets mandate to form new government which might include some members of the opposition.

Two groupings are trying to win: the March 14 alliance backed by the West and Sunni Arab countries and the March 8 coalition backed by Syria and Iran. Whichever side wins, the impact will be felt across the Middle East. At the same time, both groupings lack internal coherence.

Donors’ conference is underway today. It is likely to settle on US$ 2.8 billion in aid. But willingness to rebuild will be shaped by political problems like Hamas’ status as a terrorist organisation according the West, intra-Palestinian divisions, truce with Israel and the Saudi-Iranian fight for regional supremacy.

The decision should be made official today, and last for one year. Rumors are growing of disagreements within the Islamist movement, among the leaders in Gaza, in favor of an agreement with Israel, and those living abroad, who exalt "martyrdom."

The prime minister of Qatar speaks of "reconciliation" among Arab countries, but many observers are emphasizing how Hamas now finds itself at a crossroads: whether to return within the Arab "family," or continue being "a weapon in the hands of Tehran."

The announcement was made during the summit in Damascus with France, Turkey, and Qatar, which put an end to Syria's international isolation. Discussions should include the crucial question of borders. But the big decisions are suspended in anticipation of the successors to Bush and Olmert.

Where and how the attack occurred place responsibility on the Party of God, which has not yet said anything about it. Lebanon’s governing majority wonders whether there are insuperable borders between the Republic of Lebanon and the state of Hizbollah. Two scenarios are formulated about why the incident took place.

Arab newspapers and blogs are discussing the assassination, but in Syria the news is not being covered. The victim of the attack is believed to have been Damascus's liason with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and an adviser to Assad.

A solution has not yet been found to the fundamental question of regulating "the right" of Hezbollah to liberate the national territory still in the hands of the Israelis. On Tuesday, the "historic" visit to Damascus by President Suleiman.

A first sign of thaw after years of tension following the assassination of Rafik Hariri. For Assad, it is "an historic visit", a chance to return to the international community. But clearer signs are still awaited: diplomatic relations with Lebanon, and withdrawal of support for Hezbollah and for armed Palestinian groups.

The agreement went into effect this morning, and appears to be part of a series of initiatives on the part of Olmert toward all the neighbouring countries, from Syria to Lebanon, and toward Hezbollah itself. For the king of Jordan, it would be "a serious mistake" to let this year end without creating a Palestinian state beside a "secure and recognised" Israel.