Paul Dakiki

Israel and the United States are demanding that the announcement of the formation of a national unity government be followed by recognition of Israel and by a commitment to put an end to terrorism. Russia and the UN Secretary-general have responded positively and the EU cautiously. The Saudi diplomatic success is bound to have a bearing on the balance of power in the Middle East.

Success in reconciling Palestinian factions would strengthen Riyadh’s hand in the struggle for leadership in the Middle East.

Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa is set to travel to Beirut with a plan to submit to both majority and opposition. Aoun and Franjieh sign bishops’ ‘declaration of principles’.

Both majority and opposition leaders slam yesterday’s clashes, which bring back memories of the 15-year civil war. Saudi Arabia denies that any negotiations are underway with Iran over the Lebanon crisis. Maronite League urges all parties to engage in dialogue on the basis of the Bkerke principles.

The international conference on economic aid for Lebanon opens tomorrow. It plans to help Beirut cope with its mounting public debt (US$ 41 billion), but also wants to signal Western support for Prime Minister Fuad Siniora and his government who are entangled in a grave political crisis at home.

Prelates, who met Gemayel yesterday, want to organise a meeting of all leaders chaired by Patriarch Sfeir to come up with a common statement. A week from the Paris conference, opposition threatens an escalation in street protest.

The upcoming Paris conference has prompted the executive to draw up a reform project that could be used to exert pressure on the opposition. Meditation by the Arab League could resume before 10 January.

According to the bishops, the “main malady” of the country is the clash over the formation of an international court. Hezbollah representatives have met the Saudi king. The Shia Higher Council has called for a return to dialogue.

Impasse prevails in Lebanon’s political situation with government majority and oppositon unable to agree even on donors’ conference. Hesbollah threatens further escalation in protest movement.

Amr Moussa might be back in Beirut on Monday. An overall agreement for a national unity government and an international tribunal into the Hariri assassination would entail “neutral members” in both bodies. The question though is who would pick them.

UN Security Council unanimously backs Siniora government. Brammertz’s third report says probe has reached a critical stage into the Hariri and other political assassinations.

Bringing together Gemayel, Franjieh, Geagea, and Aoun is impossible for the time being. Cabinet gives the go-ahead to the UN-backed international tribunal, but the path is blocked by Lebanon's president and Hezbollah. The danger of civil looms again over the country.