Steve Suwannarat

After Generation Z’s anti-corruption demonstrations in September 2025 led to the fall of KP Sharma Oli's government, the Himalayan country is set for an election campaign with an unprecedented mix of old parties and young candidates seeking radical change. Former King Gyanendra is also running with a pro-monarchist party, presenting himself as a guarantor of stability.

Defying predictions, the Bhumjaithai Party is leading in the seat count by a wide margin. Outgoing Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, a populist businessman who got a boost by the conflict with Cambodia, also won in Pheu Thai strongholds. The reformist People's Party, unable to reach beyond young voters and urban middle class, was defeated. A yes vote in the referendum opens to the way to changes to the military-imposed constitution.

At stake is not only who will lead the government, but also the possibility of rewriting the constitution imposed by the military in 2017. With the Shinawatra clan's Pheu Thai weakened, the battle appears to be between the reformists of the People's Party and the Bhumijaythai party led by incumbent Prime Minister Anutin, who seeks to capitalise on the nationalist wave sparked by the conflict with Cambodia. But the real challenge is the faltering economy.

Bangkok's currency continues to rise against the dollar: its value has risen by 8% since the beginning of the year, despite economic fundamentals that do not justify such a trend. With a political crisis effectively postponed until the early elections in 2026, there is a risk that speculative manoeuvres will further undermine exports (already struggling with Trump's tariffs) and tourism.

The Thai parliament's green light for the new prime minister after the judicial intervention on Paetongtarn Shinawatra replicated a pattern seen many times in Bangkok: the alliance between parties that are apparently irreconcilable in their programmes and leaders to oust their opponent. But the People's Party wants new elections within four months and the amendment of the Constitution used to undermine its electoral success in 2023.

Tomorrow, the conservatives of Bhumjaithai will attempt to elect a minority government with the conditional and temporary support of the reformists, who won the 2023 elections but were then excluded from the unprecedented alliance between populists and pro-military forces, which was swept away by the conflict with Cambodia. Even the Shinawatra family, after yet another judicial ouster, are now courting the heirs of Move Forward. The army: ‘We will support any government, but we will guarantee stability.’

According to the Constitutional Court, the prime minister violated her duty of integrity because of what she said in a controversial phone call, whose audio was released by Cambodia’s Hun Sen. The military-aligned party is moving toward a deal with Anutin, a former Shinawatra ally in government. Meanwhile, Thailand’s military warns that it is ready to respond to further "provocations" from Phnom Penh.

According to the Ministry of Higher Education, 10,000 visas are set to be cancelled. A wave of arrests, especially in the provinces of Chiang Mai and Phuket, suggests widespread abuse of long-term residence permits. Private universities have also been implicated, but they deny all wrongdoing, blaming instead corruption among public officials.

The Thaksin’s case will be heard on 22 August, while his daughter Paetongtarn’s case will be heard on 29 August after her prime ministership was suspended over the latest military confrontation with Cambodia. This marks a new chapter in Thailand’s long crisis; unable to turn the page, the country pursues its long decline.

As border posts along the 800-kilometre border remain effectively closed, Cambodia announced the introduction of compulsory military service in 2026. The domestic situation in the two countries is fuelling the dispute, as both face strong nationalist headwinds and militaries with extensive interests and power. Thailand’s highest court announced that it will rule on Thaksin Shinawatra on 22 August.

Vietnam’s National Assembly voted a resolution in favour of an administrative reform that strengthens the power of the country’s current leadership, which emerged victorious from the “blazing furnace" anti-corruption campaign inside the party. The country of 101 million will be divided between 28 provinces and six centrally run cities.

Data from a new national survey shows the growth in methamphetamine use. This phenomenon no longer affects only the northern areas traditionally close to production sites in Myanmar. As many as 300,000 people have needed medical treatment for drug addiction-related problems.