Caucasus

Through a wide range of initiatives, the Amor association aims to make Azerbaijanis on the Russian side of the Caspian feel at home. Chaired by Aliev's eldest daughter, it aims to distinguish its community from the diasporas of other peoples, focusing on good relations between Baku and Moscow.

In the age of sovereignism, Azerbaijan rediscovers one of the largest and longest-lived empires in the Muslim world to claim the historical roots of its statehood ion opposition to Tehran. Akhmedov: ‘The political and economic reforms of its founder Šakh Ismail Khataj should be studied’. Ancient events as a key to reading today's battles of the Aliev dynasty.

The mountain of Noah's Ark, a biblical symbol of ancient Armenia, remains an unresolved issue in the ongoing attempts to revive relations between Ankara and Yerevan. Turkey claims that Kurdish armies are organised on its slopes and does not want to grant any rights to others. And Pašinyan would like to remove the Armenian flags so as not to pursue ‘dreams of the past’.

The fallout of the Trump presidency on the region's balances, the return of opportunities for Gazprom and Rosatom in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the stalemate in negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the political clash in Georgia: analysts' predictions on the most important issues of 2025 in Central Asia and the Caucasus.

On 29 December, the mandate of President Salome Zurabišvili expires. She supports the popular protests that have been going on for three weeks against fraud in the elections won by the Georgian Dream, which has ‘frozen’ the European integration project. He is calling for new elections to be called by then, while Prime Minister Iraklij Kobakhidze is threatening to open criminal proceedings against him.

A long report by Article18, CSW, Open Doors and Middle East Concern raises the issue. The future for migrants is uncertain with abuse and violence potentially waiting for them should they return to Iran. In 2023, 20 per cent of asylum seekers in Georgia came from Iran, 90 per cent fleeing after converting to Christianity.

Prime Minister Iraklij Kobakhidze's declaration of the interruption of EU accession talks until 2028 has made the clash even harsher, while the Constitutional Court has confirmed the outcome of the disputed elections. The police are using water cannons and tear gas and have already arrested hundreds of people. Former prime minister Georgij Kvirikašvili, former president of the majority party, has also sided with the protesters.

In the separatist region of Georgia that has been under Moscow's control for 15 years, thousands of people rose up against the government's agreements with Russian oligarchs. Bžanija announced the step back ‘to preserve stability and constitutional order’. These are not unprecedented events for Sukhumi, which is nevertheless destined to remain firmly in the hands of the Kremlin.

For the first time since the ‘velvet revolution’ of 2018, the Armenian premier showed his face shaved of his beard. A gesture to wink at the need to ‘bring the country back to zero’, an expression he increasingly used to call for ‘looking at the real Armenia and not the land of dreams’.

In his speech at the UN Conference underway in Baku, the Vatican Secretary of State reiterated Pope Francis’s appeal for the 2025 Jubilee. “A new international financial architecture” is needed “that can truly ensure for all countries, especially the poorest and those most vulnerable to climate disasters, both low-carbon and high-sharing development pathways”.

The opposition continues its mobilisation every night, denouncing the vote manipulations that would have led to the new success of the pro-Russian Georgian Dream. Documents are being collected for an international enquiry, while the outgoing government remains in a wait-and-see position, pointing to divisions between the parties and not believing in their ability to truly involve the population in the protest.

How many hold the pro-Russian government responsible for fraud that overturned the exit-poll results are pouring into the streets of downtown Tbilisi amid rising tension. President Zurabišvili and leaders of the opposition (which appeared divided into four different parties) do not recognize the results, which give the Georgian Dream 53.92 percent of the vote in a divided country. The Kremlin cries "destabilization on behalf of the Europeans."