Thailand elections

Thailand’s Election Commission has turned to the Constitutional Court to disband the party that won the most votes in the last election, claiming that it violated Section 112 (lèse-majesté) of the country’s Criminal Code. A similar ban occurred to another party in 2020.

The resignation opens up room for the opposition in the House of Representatives. Thailand’s new government takes office today, still controlled by the establishment (military and monarchy), which Pita had tried to shake up. The young leader is included in the “Time100 Next” list of emerging leaders.

The real estate tycoon, candidate of Pheu Thai, gains the confidence of the military in Parliament by sending the opposition Move Forward, the anti-establishment party winner of the elections. The former leader of the red shirts taken to the medical wing of the prison to serve his 8-year sentence for corruption (but he will immediately ask for a pardon). He promised a "more democratic" constitution but without touching the crime of lese-majeste. Pita Limjaroenrat: "They have united to stop the change, but this government will not be able to give anything to the Thais".

Thailand’s National Assembly is waiting for the Constitutional Court to rule on a petition that can seal the fate of the Move Forward leader Pita Limcharoenrat. The For Thais party is in talks with other parties after its alliance with Pita’s party unravelled. Former Prime Minister Shinawatra is not likely to return soon.

Thailand’s new parliament is set to meet next Monday following the 14 May election. Convening the new House of Representatives and picking a new prime minister will top the agenda. A showdown is looming between monarchists and the military against the biggest coalition.

The alliance between Pita Limjaroenrat's Move Forward, Shinawatra's Pheu Thai and other smaller forces lacks the votes of 66 members of the (military-controlled) Senate to have a majority in parliament after winning the May 14 vote. The specter of a new coup by the generals in case a government is not reached within the 60-day deadline. Meanwhile, the Defense Council proposes streamlining the armed forces to regain consensus.

The leader of the progressive Move Forward Party today announced the formation of a new coalition that can rely on 313 votes, not enough to become prime minister. Third runner-up Thai Pride Party and some senators said they would not vote for a prime minister who wants to change Section 112 of the Penal Code.

The Move Forward Party led by Pita Limjaroenrat won the most seats, but will need allies to rule, probably the For Thais Party, which came second. The high turnout (75-80 per cent) shows that voters trust the youth-led anti-military movement. According to some observers, “The Senate will probably not oppose the election results.” Real opposition will come when attempts will be made to curb the military and write a new constitution.

On Sunday Thailand will vote in poll to end era of Prayut Chan-ocha's rule in a country deeply in crisis. Weakened by divisions the 2019 vote winners, the Move Forward Party is a possible outsider. Army chief rules out new "interventions." The unknown factor of a possible return from exile of Shinawatra in case of a broad affirmation of his Pheu Thai.