Beijing (AsiaNews) – The real purpose for the North Korean attack against Yeonpyeong Island is to get back to the negotiating table to extract more humanitarian whilst keeping at bay international supervision of their military capabilities, this according to many area specialists. However, for them, Beijing should stop Pyongyang; otherwise, things might get out of hand.
“The Chinese leadership is very cautious, so they opt to go light on North Korea, even at very substantial cost to their relations with South Korea, Japan, the U.S. and Australia,” said Kenneth Lieberthal, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
Beijing’s opposition to international sanctions following the Yeonpyeong incident is putting political priorities ahead of economic interests. This could push South Korea and Japan into a closer alliance with the United States.
However, China does not risk much economically. Currently, it holds US$ 2.6 trillion in foreign currency reserves, including US$ 883.5 billion in US Treasuries. The combined value of stocks traded in China and Hong Kong accounts for 13 per cent of the global total, double the size of the UK equity market. Any Western retaliation against China is in fact impossible.
This does not mean that the Chinese are not without concerns. In fact, “The Chinese worry about refugees and chaos from a North Korean collapse in the short term,” said Michael J. Green, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. On the long run, what worries them the most is the “magnetic effect of having a strong modernized Korea of 75 million people on their border”; hence, Beijing’s urgent call for a return to negotiations.
But for Nicholas J.C. Snyder, a spokesman at the US Embassy in Beijing, “The six-party talks cannot substitute for action by North Korea to comply with its obligations”. He warns that “Clear steps by North Korea are needed to demonstrate a change of behaviour.”
