North Asia

Over the last three years, Russia has invested almost one and a half billion dollars in the development of the Northern Sea Route. The goal is to increase traffic from the current 38 million tonnes to 220 million by 2035. However, the extreme weather conditions, the archaic ships and, above all, the toxic fuel used make this ambitious project a decidedly risky venture.

2025 does not mark the end of wars, but the division between the dictatorships of East and West. The new Russian language dictionary relaunches visions of democracy and autocracy in official ideology. The speciality of Witkoff and Dmitriev, architects of the truce “project”, is counting money and dividing the spoils. The clash over language and the issue of coexistence between Orthodox Churches.

Around one million people moved there after the 2014 annexation from the northern regions, as well as Moscow and St Petersburg. Over time, difficulties in adapting have emerged, and many have decided to return. The cost of property and the lack of infrastructure, combined with the ‘Crimean mentality’, weigh heavily. Of the 10 Russians who have arrived in recent years, only two on average stay.

The 68-year-old Russian sociologist is one of Putin's most prominent political prisoners, but he was already one in Brezhnev's USSR. From prison, he says he feels freer to express his opinions. He is serving a five-year sentence for ‘justifying terrorism’ in reference to his criticism of the war. His health is deteriorating in prison.

Baku is one of the first candidates to form a decisive link in this new chain. US interest in the post-Soviet region has increased since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Washington wants to forge an anti-Chinese axis stretching from Israel to India. An economic, political and even military alliance to counterbalance the anti-Western axis of Moscow and Beijing.

Scandals in Kyiv are increasingly intertwined with frequent discussions about Zelensky's departure from power. Justice, transparency, “purity”, and the punishment of the guilty appear to be the priorities under the mounting rubble of war.

In an article, the head of the presidential administration for monitoring and analysing social processes condemns those who theorise about ‘a completely post-Russian state’. He announces the imminent approval of a new law on patriotic education, which will involve all organs of power, educational institutions and other social structures of the state.

Believing in Russia does not automatically mean believing in God and religious dogmas, belonging to the Orthodox Church does not necessarily mean attending liturgical celebrations, and supporting “traditional values” does not automatically translate into accepting the dictates of the catechism.

In 2017, the parish priest of the Svjato-Onežskij cathedral on the Russian Arctic coast began negotiations with the Norwegian mayor of Vardø to build a Russian Orthodox chapel on the fishing island. But when the plans included an imposing 17-metre-high building in the middle of NATO's large radar installations, the city council refused to grant permission despite generous Russian offers of subsidies.

Faced with the resurgence of the so-called rodnovery, or “native believers”, Kirill formed a special commission led by Russian-French Archbishop Savva, the rising star of his team, to counter this new challenge. But according to Professor Šiženskij, one of Russia's leading religious scholars, the only real answer is missionary work that goes beyond ideological assessments.

In a divided and conflict-ridden world, universal unity is Moscow's new religion. It relies on destabilisation, propaganda, and the financing of "friendly" elites and oligarchs loyal to Moscow, along with the Churches as tools of power. After Ukraine, Kazakhstan is the country most at risk, with the longest land border and the largest Russian diaspora. The US, the EU, and international partners will have to strengthen economic and diplomatic relations with the territories targeted by Moscow.

​U.S. sanctions against the oil giant Lukoil are expected to have repercussions in Central Asia as well. The Russian company has announced plans to sell its foreign assets — a major issue for a country like Kazakhstan, which exports 80% of its oil through Russian infrastructure but cannot afford to lose access to Western banking systems.