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Beirut (AsiaNews) – Five months after Hezbollah entered the war against Israel (2 March), Lebanon continues to live or rather, limp along at two speeds.
One part of the country is at war, with its far south ravaged, or, as some say, "redrawn" by the tracks of Israeli tanks; the other is navigating the summer as normally as possible, a season now ending with a turbulent return to routine marked by a protest movement among ex servicemen.
Retired soldiers are demanding that their US$ 600 monthly allowance be doubled and are challenging the claim that the government "has no money”, pointing out that lawmakers just raised their own monthly pay from US$ 3,000 to US$ 5,000, while tax evasion remains rampant.
The return to normal activity is also overshadowed by the urgent need to rehouse tens of thousands of displaced people and, with winter approaching, to vacate public schools that had been converted into shelters.
On the military front, Israeli occupation forces have "taken operational control" of the Ali Taher ridge line (3 September), a Hezbollah "strategic key point" abandoned by its defenders.
This opens the way for a potential occupation of the major city of Nabatieh (population 100,000), the district capital, a stronghold of the Amal movement, and a key economic hub in southern Lebanon.
In fact, the city's population fears a large-scale ground offensive by the Israeli army.
However, according to unverified press reports, President Aoun warned the Americans that a ground offensive against Nabatieh would deal a fatal blow to the credibility of the agreement with Israel, prompting Israel to temporarily shelve the idea.
Nevertheless, the occupying forces have not stopped their sporadic shelling of the city and surrounding villages.
On Tuesday, Kfar Roummane buried 13 people, most from the same family, killed by Israeli strikes on Monday night. These strikes, carried out without warning, are generally based on information provided by informants. Indeed, of the 13 coffins lined up in the village square, two were draped in Hezbollah flags.
The Lebanese army’s dilemma
In response to the fall of Ali Taher, the Lebanese army has stepped up its deployment and boosted its visibility in Nabatieh. However, its mission currently excludes any disarmament of Hezbollah, despite the law declaring all military and security activities by the pro-Iranian party illegal.
The trilateral framework negotiated under US auspices and signed on 26 June between Lebanon and Israel mandates that the Lebanese army disarm Hezbollah and prevent it from maintaining a military presence in specific “pilot zones”.
Yet, just as progress has stalled in those zones due to disagreements over how to verify Hezbollah's disarmament, so that the dual process of withdrawal and disarmament has ground to a halt.
In an effort to salvage what can be salvaged for the already hard-hit city of Nabatieh, residents and local lawmakers have (once again) turned to the government. On Monday, a manifesto signed by prominent local figures called for the city to be declared "open to the army and free of [Hezbollah] weapons" in order to protect it from Israeli strikes.
They were joined the following day by residents of Arab Salim (in the same district) as well as the large city of Tyre, who, a hundred days earlier, had issued a similar appeal but failed to see its demands realised.
Marc Daou: "There is no longer room for half-measures"
“On 29 May 2026, we joined the 'Tyre Appeal’, warning against the arrival of war and destruction in the city and calling on the state to act before it was too late. But since then, the situation has steadily deteriorated," reads the text shared by activists from the city.
"There is no longer room for half-measures," noted Marc Daou, a Druze lawmaker from Aley, who has added his voice to those of the activists.
"The army should send 400 or 500 soldiers to Nabatieh to patrol the city and prevent the movement of weapons and fighters, in accordance with the government decision of 2 March, which deems Hezbollah’s arsenal illegal. If necessary, the city could even be declared a military zone, allowing the army to act firmly, control entry and exit points, and search private properties."
In Daou’s view, Lebanon could then request that Nabatieh be added to the list of "pilot zones" where the army is to deploy in order to decommission Hezbollah’s arsenal and facilitate an Israeli withdrawal.
The situation epitomises how governance in Lebanon is paralysed on two powers: Israel and Iran, through Hezbollah.
Charles Jabbour, spokesperson for the Lebanese Forces, expressed bitterness, noting that “Hezbollah preferred to evacuate its strategic position on the Ali el-Taher ridge, which was subsequently seized by the Israeli army, rather than hand it over to the Lebanese army.”
For lawyer and activist Majd Harb, Hezbollah is focusing its efforts on Lebanon’s domestic political arena rather than on Israel. “The war against Israel is a pretext Hezbollah uses to hold on to its weapons, whereas its main adversary is the emergence of a strong Lebanese state that would disarm it,” he told L'Orient-Le Jour.
The army in a precarious position
The situation also highlights the army’s delicate position. While it enjoys the unconditional support of the authorities and a large segment of the population, it is aware of its limitations and fears the consequences that a forced disarmament could have on civil peace and its own internal cohesion, given that at least 25 per cent of its members, both recruits and officers, are Shia.
Observers note that the army’s continued hesitation also stems from the fact that some of its equipment and weaponry date backs to the 1950s, and it lacks spare parts for its tanks and vehicles.
Retired General and former lawmaker Chamel Roukoz goes even further. “The Lebanese Army has never been equipped by the state; instead, over the decades, it has relied on the conditional support offered by certain major powers, such as France and the United States," he said on Al-Jadid television on Tuesday.
It is common knowledge, moreover, that the Lebanese military has never possessed an air force, save for a few helicopters, and lacks any weaponry, such as surface-to-air missiles, capable of challenging Israel’s air superiority.
A conference in support of the Lebanese military, whose date has been postponed several times, is scheduled for 17 September in Paris, with the expected presence of the Lebanese president. However, it is doubtful that the event will alter the current situation.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam will represent Lebanon at the UN General Assembly in late September. He will almost certainly raise the issue of the future of UNIFIL, whose mandate expires at the end of this year.
Unlikely voluntary withdrawal
Finally, regarding the military situation, following the capture of Ali Taher and the consolidation of its forward positions, there has been talk in recent days of a voluntary Israeli "withdrawal" to a "gray line" located three or four kilometres from the border – a move that would reduce the area under its control from approximately 600 km² to 250 km².
However, Lebanese military experts consider this scenario highly uncertain. The political context further reinforces this scepticism. With Israeli legislative elections approaching (27 October), a withdrawal that might give the Israeli public the impression that captured positions could be abandoned would be politically difficult for Binyamin Netanyahu to justify, given that his political future is at stake. Added to this are the US midterm elections (3 November).
