Milan (AsiaNews) – Israel is set to vote on 27 October in general elections, and today was the deadline for submitting lists and candidates. The focus of the campaign is on incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, a former Army Chief of Staff, who leads Yashar.
For analysts and observers, although the contest centres around the two leaders and the factions they represent, the Arab vote could play a decisive role for the opposition to Israel’s radical right, as evidenced by multiple appeals in recent days.
Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, is urging Arab Israelis to show up in large numbers at the polls in the latest of a series of calls to Israel’s main ethnic minority, traditionally characterised by a low turnout at election time.
In a video message made with Knesset Member Gilad Kariv, translated into Arabic, Golan addressed this electorate directly. “If you go out to vote on October 27 – Netanyahu will not be Prime Minister,” he said, before adding that those who don't vote “are essentially voting for [Itamar] Ben Gvir," the current Minister of National Security.
The Arab factor
The Arab minority constitutes approximately one fifth of Israel's population and would therefore have a significant impact on the outcome of the vote. But it traditionally views elections with distrust. In addition, many of the other parties vying for voters’ support have ruled out its parties as potential partners, arguing (even more so after 7 October) that power should be reserved for Zionist forces.
Israeli Arabs obviously views with fear (and terror) the prospect of a new government led by the outgoing prime minister and his associates Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who have fuelled violence by settlers and extremists, increasingly marginalising Arabs (not to mention harshly targeting Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank).
They lament the neglect they've endured in northern Israel, facing a serious crime wave that has plagued Arab communities for years, fuelled by the indifference to the needs of Arab citizens when it comes to services and even policing.
Will this be enough to convince more Arabs to vote? The most optimistic say that Arab representation in the Knesset could significantly increase from the 10 seats in the current Knesset. In fact, greater Arab participation will make it harder for smaller parties linked to the Israeli right to meet the 3.25 per cent threshold.
In the last election, Arab turnout stood at 53 per cent, a full 17 percentage points lower than the general average.
In the past, the historic peak in Arab turnout was 2020, when a United Arab List comprising four parties actually ran together with the turnout reaching 65 per cent, allowing their parties to win an all-time high of 15 seats.
And today? The main parties are divided into two camps: the alliance between Hadash, Ta‘al, and Balad, three parties that form the Joint List with a common agreement, and Mansour Abbas's Ra‘am party, which backed the short-lived Bennett-Lapid government in 2020.
A survey of Arab voters indicates 38 per cent favour the Hadash-Ta‘al-Balad alliance, while 19 per cent favour Ra'am. However, another 7 per cent backs Makom Lekulanu, (A Place for All), a new party created by the "Standing Together" peace movement led by Arab Rula Daood and Jewish Alon Lee-Green.
Makom Lekulanu falls well below the 3.25 per cent electoral threshold, but it could still attract many Arabs who have hitherto deserted the polls, dissatisfied with their traditional parties.
For this reason, it is trying to reach a last-minute agreement with Hadash-Ta‘al-Balad to add its own candidates, but this path is unlikely to materialise.
Meanwhile, the latest polls suggest that Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party could emerge as the majority party in the next Knesset with a total of 25 seats, while Netanyahu's Likud party could end up with 21 seats.
The bloc led by Eisenkot could get 57 seats, while Netanyahu's could reach 52, both far from the 61 seats needed to govern. Hence, the (perhaps) decisive role of Arab parties.
The odd Segalovitz-Ra'am alliance
Another important development should also be mentioned. Yoav Segalovitz, a former Yesh Atid lawmaker, a Jew with a past as a senior police officer, has surprisingly chosen to run with Ra‘am.
This is not the first time a Jew has run for an Arab party. Hadash had Jewish candidates, but they were usually associated with the peace movement or advocacy groups. In this case, the case involves a figure with ties to the Israeli establishment.
The decision did not go down well with the other Arab-Israeli parties, united in the Joint List, but it is part of a strategy Mansour Abbas has undertaken in recent years to shed his party’s original Islamist character, embracing social and economic struggles that are key to the community.
For his part, Segalovitz explained his decision to join the Arab party after “a long period of deliberation and many conversations” with Abbas in a series of recent interviews. In a lengthy post, he explained the reasons and objectives of his active participation.
“I decided that the right thing to do is to take action,” he said. “In particular at this time, amid the social polarization between Jews and Arabs. Ra‘am wants to be part of taking action.”
“I am Jewish, a Zionist, secular, an officer in the IDF and a commissioner in the Israel Police. Mansour is Arab, a religious Muslim and a conservative. What connects the two of us is that we are all Israelis, and that is our shared identity.”
However, “The term ‘Israeli’ has lost some of its luster, and we are continuously occupied with ethnic distinctions that divide us instead of what unites us.”
In fact, “The Arab population in Israel makes up 21 per cent [of the population] – active and productive, in industry, the economy, culture, education and medicine. It is an engine of economic and social growth.
“Yes, there are differences between us, there is a complicated history between Arabs and Jews in this country. But there is a shared future. That shared future exists in every area of life.”
For Segalovitz, citing the tragic events that marked the recent life of the country, dragging it into a bloody conflict, “The common assertion — that after October 7 it is impossible to establish a political partnership with Arab parties — is absurd and false.”
Indeed, “Arab Israelis experienced the war, and in the horrific October 7 attack more than 34 members of the Arab community were killed, and Arab citizens were also kidnapped to Gaza — six members of the Bedouin community in the Negev.”
“The political dividing lines were drawn by extremists and became an accepted political norm across all parties. I do not accept this premise.” Instead, “I want to build a real political bridge.
“Even if there are problems, and there will be. There will be difficulties, and even if it (the bridge) is shaky or unsteady, it will be built and will be a basis for continued political action, which I hope many good people, Jews and Arabs, will continue.”
“Yes, I explicitly want to break the paradigm of the dividing lines and the lines of discourse. Yes, I also want to break the paradigm of how political partnership is created.
“I am not joining Ra‘am with a faction, I am personally joining Ra‘am. Some will say this is a political weakness, but from my perspective, there is greater power and strength here.”
Hence, “I call on Jews, Arabs, Muslims, Christians and Druze to put their trust in this move and join us.”
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