Milan (AsiaNews) – With one week to go before Israel’s elections, the picture relayed by polling remains highly uncertain. It now seems more than likely that neither Benyamin Netanyahu nor the Zionist parties, which present themselves as an alternative, with former general Gadi Eisenkot as a potential prime minister, will secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset.
A crucial factor will be the voter turnout in Israel’s Arab population, which is expected to be higher than in previous elections, with its two main parties, the United Arab List and Ra’am set to secure a significant number of seats. Any coalition alternative to Netanyahu appears virtually impossible without them.
While this is the broader picture, there is a very specific contest unfolding within the Israeli right that warrants close attention: the battle for the votes in the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community.
Known as Haredim, they are estimated to be about 14 per cent of the Israeli population, and have been traditionally seen as the most cohesive and stable group in terms of electoral preferences.
According to the Israel Democracy Institute, 86 per cent of their ballots in the 2022 elections went to the two major religious parties: Shas (the Sephardic party) and United Torah Judaism (an alliance representing Ashkenazi groups).
In short, only scraps were left for the other parties on the Israeli right. In absolute terms, Shas won 8.25 per cent of the vote, securing 11 seats, while United Torah Judaism received 5.88 per cent, taking seven seats.
This result is essentially the same as in previous elections; for the past 20 years, religious parties in the Knesset have consistently held 16 to 18 seats, with only minor fluctuations largely tied to overall voter turnout.
Over the years, this bloc of voters has been crucial in securing majorities for Netanyahu. This time, however, nothing can be taken for granted as the size of the ultra-Orthodox population is growing.
Due to the higher birth rates, young Haredim account for 105,000 of the approximately 595,000 Israelis aged 18 to 22 who will be voting for the first time on 27 October. Yet, it is no longer a foregone conclusion that this will translate into support for Shas or United Torah Judaism.
The issue of military conscription
The legislature now drawing to a close has been particularly turbulent for the two religious parties, largely due to the deepening row over the military conscription of Yeshiva students.
This issue has become a flashpoint in Israel during the war that began on 7 October 2023, with the vast majority of the public growing increasingly intolerant towards the exemptions granted to religious students, while the Supreme Court has repeatedly ruled that military service is mandatory for everyone.
Netanyahu has tried to hold his own governing coalition together, even though its members hold conflicting views on this issue. As is his custom, he tried a compromise, focusing on "voluntary" enlistment, which yielded poor results, and the creation of separate Haredim battalions in the military. For their part, both Shas and United Torah Judaism pushed for legislation to renew the exemption, in another challenge to the Supreme Court.
Ultimately, nothing was done, as it risked alienating a large segment of Israel’s secular electorate, a decision that sparked protests, some of which turned violent, led by groups of ultra-Orthodox youths.
The issue flared up again just today, barely a week before the elections, when the Israeli military police detained a group of 40 Haredi youths, affiliated with the Chabad-Lubavitch community, at Ben Gurion Airport upon their return from the United States. For the army, the are draft evaders, given that they previously refused mandatory military service.
This move prompted religious parties to complain of “interference in the elections.” Netanyahu, in an interview with a Haredi radio station, initially condemned the action, only to backtrack later and state that those who do not enlist will go to prison.
The incumbent prime minister desperately needs the ultra-Orthodox to retain their seats in the Knesset. Yet, within their communities, not everyone continues to trusts the Likud leader.
On the right, there is fear that many Haredim, feeling betrayed, might stay away on election day. In a situation where the two coalitions appear essentially neck and neck, the scale of defections could prove decisive in tipping the balance one way or the other.
The emergence of Haredi Public
Finally, another significant element must be included, since, this time, Shas and United Torah Judaism are no longer the only two religious parties.
Among the 37 groups that have submitted lists for the Knesset, at least three more are openly vying for the ultra-Orthodox vote.
The most notable is the HaTzibbur HaCharedi (Haredi Public), led by Moti Leitner, deputy mayor of Beit Shemesh. The new, reform-minded political party seeks to combat poverty in ultra-Orthodox communities, introduce secular subjects into Yeshiva curriculum, and facilitate the integration of young ultra-Orthodox in the labour market.
Another highly significant development for the Haredi world is that the party includes two ultra-Orthodox women among its top four candidates: Nechumi Yaffe, a former consultant to the National Security Council, and Ziva Glantz, a social entrepreneur focused on educational reform.
Although polls place the party well below the 3.25 per cent electoral threshold (around 1 per cent), it is attracting attention as a potential alternative to the traditional ultra-Orthodox establishment. Some surveys even suggest that it is gaining considerable support among young people, particularly young women.
The other two lists are challenging the two traditional religious parties from the right.
The first is Noam Le’Yisrael (Serenity for Israel), a party founded in 2019 by disciples of Rabbi Zvi Tau. Its stated goal is to defend family values by opposing homosexuality, feminism, and progressivism; in 2022, the party ran as part of Ben-Gvir’s electoral list.
The second is HaKahal (The Public), an ultra-Orthodox party led by Shlomo Elbaum, a city councillor in Bnei Brak, which is fielding an all-male list composed of both Ashkenazi and Sephardic Jews.
HaKahal also represents a significant departure from the norm. Unlike Shas and United Torah Judaism, its candidates were not selected by the movement’s rabbinical leaders, but rather through primaries held among its supporters.
This is further evidence that, even within minority groups, perhaps even among the ultra-Orthodox, things may be starting to change.
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