Armenia’s future, between East and West

In addition to Russia, Armenia’s prime minister is looking to China and India to boost the country’s development. New Delhi plays an important role in military-industrial and security matters. China is looking for Armenian raw materials. In the background, ties with the European Union (along with the United States) remain the primary political objective.

by Vladimir Rozanskij

Moscow (AsiaNews) – In late July, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that his country intends to develop relations with Russia, but does not believe they should be exclusive.

In his view, one of the key changes in Armenia's foreign policy is the desire to broaden its circle of international partners and seek alternatives that the country previously lacked, citing China as one of the most important.

Beijing is closely following events in the South Caucasus region. Recently, Chinese Premier Li Qiang sent a congratulatory letter on 4 August to Pashinyan for his new mandate as prime minister, noting that “China and Armenia enjoy long-standing traditional friendship.”

India, China’s historic rival, is also an important geopolitical partner for Armenia.

Coincidentally with Beijing’s congratulations, Armenian Ambassador to India, Vaagn Afyan, met with Amit Telang, undersecretary for international cooperation at the Indian Ministry of Defence to discuss defence cooperation between the two countries, particularly in the military-industrial and military-educational domains.

Relations between Armenia and India have made a qualitative leap in recent years, turning into a true strategic partnership, with security as the main driver of their rapprochement.

India, which has complex relations with Azerbaijan's ally Pakistan, views Armenia as a natural partner, while India has become a crucial arms supplier for Armenia.

This has led to unprecedented growth in military-technical cooperation. In 2024, Armenia has become the largest buyer of Indian weapons, with total purchases worth US$ 600 million.

The business side is also showing positive momentum, even though India is not among Armenia's major trading and investment partners. Bilateral trade volume is less than US$ 300 million, while by comparison with Russia, it exceeds US$ 2 billion.

Although India plays an important role for Armenia's military-industrial interests and security, China far surpasses it in business.

On 31 August 2025, Armenia and China signed a Joint statement Between the Republic of Armenia and the People's Republic of China on the Establishment of a Strategic Partnership. China was Armenia's third-largest trading partner in 2023, for a total of US$ 2.13 billion, a 21.3 per cent increase over the previous year.

China is interested in Armenia for its raw materials, primarily gold (62.6 per cent of exports), copper, silver, molybdenum ore, and wine. Conversely, cars, telephone equipment, clothing, and construction materials are Armenia’s main imports from China.

In military and political terms, India appears to be Armenia’s most important partner. New Delhi is ready not only to supply weapons, but also to share technology, train personnel, and support Yerevan as it might face off again against Azerbaijan and Turkey.

In business, China is clearly the leader. Trade, credit lines, and infrastructure projects make Beijing a valuable economic partner.

Pashinyan will seek to use both India and China to diversify his country’s external ties.

Still, Russia remains Armenia's main economic partner for the foreseeable future, and Pashinyan's primary political focus is not India or China, but the European Union.

The closer Armenia gets to the EU, the more it will have to adapt to the latter’s preferences, not only in its relationship with Russia, but also with the Asian giants.

The same goes for the United States, whose President, Donald Trump, was nominated by Pashinyan for the Nobel Prize for his contribution to peace with Azerbaijan, agreeing to name a transit corridor between Azerbaijan and its exclave, Nakhichevan, which runs through Armenian territory, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity or TRIPP.

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