Kathmandu (AsiaNews) – Nepal faces a major dilemma after catastrophic floods claimed thousands of lives destroying vital energy infrastructure.
The country bet on hydroelectric power, with 189 plants currently in operation, and this has paid off in terms of energy availability, but has also had a couple of major negative consequences.
First, it has exposed the territory (and the population) to new environmental vulnerabilities, to which hydroelectric plants contribute. Secondly, it has tied the country to a single energy source (albeit one that allows for exports), thus discouraging the development of other eco-sustainable and renewable alternatives, which have, however, significant environmental, technical, and economic limitations.
Plans to reach 28.5 GW
Today, Nepal relies on hydroelectric power for almost all its energy needs, with a generating capacity of approximately 4 GW; of this, 2.5 GW goes for domestic use, while the remainder is available for export via grid connections to India and Bangladesh.
The country has staked its future on this path. Studies show a potential capacity of 43 GW, and based on this figure, the government plans to raise the sector's generating capacity to 28.5 GW by 2035, with exports reaching 15 GW.
This prospect is driven by several factors: tangible support for employment in a crucial sector requiring a skilled technical workforce; the need for energy to fuel domestic development; and the availability of a highly sought-after resource that is readily accessible for export.
Yet, the crisis triggered by the catastrophe that hit the Bhotekoshi and Trishuli rivers – with impacts extending far beyond the Langtang region, where the main Nepal-Tibet border crossing is located – has highlighted how this approach faces risks related to climate and infrastructure.
Floods destroyed or damaged 13 hydroelectric plants, trapping hundreds of people, including workers and others who had sought shelter in tunnels. This cut generating capacity by more than 10 per cent, forcing Nepal to halt energy exports to Bangladesh amounting to approximately 1 GW.
The winter energy deficit
Recent and ongoing events have demonstrated that traditional engineering standards are ill-equipped to withstand the extreme and potentially recurring disasters, which are happening with increasing speed across the Himalayan region, resulting from climate change.
These changes will inevitably impact water availability, a situation already characterised by a stark disparity between monsoon surpluses and winter deficits.
Nearly 90 per cent of Nepal’s hydroelectric power is generated by run-of-the-river plants, making the system heavily dependent on seasonal river flows; while abundant energy production during the monsoon season allows for significant exports, Nepal is forced to import energy from India during the dry season when it becomes necessary.
In the fiscal year ending in June, hydroelectric power sales generated over US$ 130 million in government revenue. However, experts predict that in the new fiscal year, Nepal will need to further scale back regional exports and increase imports during the winter months.
The challenges of an alternative path
Despite past events and the obvious risks posed by the terrain, particularly in mountainous areas, few in Nepal anticipate a significant slowdown in the construction of dams and river-based power plants.
At present, no alternatives appear viable without unsustainable timeframes and costs. This includes the option of increasing fossil fuel imports into a region that has few major roads, all permanently exposed to hydrogeological risks.
Moreover, fossil fuels are highly polluting and must be imported from two of the world’s largest polluters (China and India), both of which already exert a decisive influence on Nepal’s environmental situation.
In addition to being subject to seasonal fluctuations, solar energy development would likely need to take place on a large scale in places that are unsuitable due to slope or orientation, or on land already designated for essential agricultural use.
In this regard, data from the Global Energy Monitor is clear: the capacity of hydroelectric projects currently under development or planned in the country exceed that of currently identifiable large-scale photovoltaic plants by a factor of fourteen.
