In the second half of the year growth will be 6.7. In the first half, it was 6.9. Next year it should drop some more, to 6 per cent, the lowest level in 30 years. This stems from lower industrial output and less credit.
Beijing (AsiaNews/Agencies) – New data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that the country’s growth rate is slowing down. Analysts believe that this is the result of tighter government credit policy.
Data on investment, industrial output and retail sales point to the slowdown. During the first eight months of this year, investment in fixed assets grew at the slowest pace in almost 18 years, up 7.8 per cent from a year ago, NBS data show.
Industrial output in August registered the weakest growth of this year, up 6 per cent from a year ago. Retail sales rose 10.1 per cent from the same month in 2016, the smallest gain in six months.
This reduction is strictly dependent on the government's campaign to cut excess industrial capacity and slim down the credit-fuelled economy. The second quarter slowdown is expected to continue.
Some analysts estimate that the growth rate could go as low as 6 per cent in 2018, which could be the country’s slowest expansion in nearly three decades. China’s gross domestic product grew at 6.9 per cent in the first half of this year.
Some analysts Like Larry Hu, cited in Caixin, expects China’s GDP growth to slow to 6.7 per cent in the second half of the year from 6.9 per cent in the first six months, before slipping further to 6.0 per cent in the full year of 2018.