According to Russian political scientist Dmitry Trenin, with a change in leadership Armenia would no longer find allies in the West; the US would step aside, and Azerbaijan and Turkey would be free to deal with an insurgent Armenian government on their own. The important thing for Moscow is that "another unfriendly front is not formed".
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Archbishop Galstanyan is not just haranguing the crowds, but urging them to storm the palaces of power. According to many, Patriarch Karekin II himself is behind the escalation, denouncing the "continuous policy of unilateral surrender" in relations with Azerbaijan. Prime Minister Pašinyan, on the other hand, calls the bishops "agents provocateurs" who want to lead to war "as in the days of Byzantium".
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Tbilisi's turn towards Moscow also threatens to have repercussions on the gas pipelines that connect Azerbaijan to Europe by crossing its territory. And Armenia, which is trying to break away from Russia, could also lose its most important ally.
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