The race to replace Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the helm of Japan’s hitherto dominant right-wing party is underway. The spotlight is on Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, a relatively young member of the party’s liberal wing, and Sanae Takaichi, a nationalist close to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who could become the country’s first female prime minister. While inflation and the cost of living dominate the campaign, the candidates discuss how to rebuild the party’s base eroded by new far-right movements.

Tokyo (AsiaNews) – The race to lead Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has officially begun, following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation on 7 September.

The vote, set for 4 October, will pick the new party leader who will very likely become the next prime minister, given that the LDP still holds a majority in the House of Representatives, the lower house in the National Diet (parliament).

Five people are running, the same who ran last year: Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 44; former Interior Minister Sanae Takaichi, 64; Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 64; former Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, 69; and former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi, 50.

Koizumi and Takaichi are considered the frontrunners. The son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Shinjiro represents the party's liberal wing and, if elected, would become Japan's youngest postwar prime minister. He recently rose to prominence for his handling of the rice price crisis, promising higher wages and increased productivity.

Takaichi, on the other hand, is the candidate of the right, close to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. A nationalist, known for her visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine and her support for a revision of the pacifist constitution, she would become the first female prime minister in Japan’s history.

Earlier this year, she visited Taiwan, the democratically ruled island claimed by China, where she suggested that Taiwan, Japan, and other partners could form a “quasi-security alliance”.

The other three are trying to present themselves as middle-of-the-road. Hayashi, a former foreign minister and current government spokesman, is seen as a pragmatic politician, attentive, backing support measures for families and areas affected by disasters.

Motegi, a Harvard graduate, a veteran politician and a former chief diplomat, has a reputation as a tough negotiator, having served as Trade Minister.

Kobayashi, former minister of Economic Security, proposes widespread tax cuts and a crackdown on foreign capital in strategic sectors.

The new leader will be chosen through a two-tier system: 295 votes are allocated to lawmakers and 295 to rank-and-file party members. If no candidate wins an absolute majority in the first round, the two candidates with the most votes will face off in a runoff, in which lawmaker votes will be the main factor.

Compared to last year, the number of party members eligible to vote fell from 1.05 million to 915,000 members, a 13 per cent drop, while the number of LDP lawmakers fell from 368 to 295, following two consecutive defeats in the 2024 and 2025 elections.

Inflation and the cost of living crisis remain at the heart of the debate, with voters demanding urgent action. All candidates are proposing new tax measures, but with different approaches.

Koizumi intends to increase income tax deductions and abolish the temporary gasoline tax in place since 1974; Takaichi wants to raise the tax-free income threshold for part-time workers, including tax credits for lower-income earners; Kobayashi proposes a flat-rate tax cut for everyone; Motegi wants to expand transfers to local governments.

No one, however, questioned the 10 per cent consumption tax, which is essential for funding social security plans but has been the focus of debate within the party for years.

Once elected, the new leader will have to rebuild the party's conservative base, eroded by new parties (like the far-right Sanseito Party) that gained support with promises of steep tax cuts and immigration restrictions.

The conservative-leaning LDP, which has ruled Japan almost continuously since World War II, now heads a minority coalition. For this reason, some candidates, particularly Koizumi, have opened the door to a possible alliance with moderate opposition parties, such as the Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People.

A snap election remains unlikely, although in theory, opposition parties could prevent the LDP leader from being named prime minister by blocking their nomination in a special parliamentary session after 4 October.

After the debacle in last July’s election to the House of Councillors (upper house) and two months of political deadlock, both Koizumi and Takaichi have ruled out dissolving the lower house to focus on tackling inflation and avoiding a new political vacuum.

Party members have so far indicated their willingness to advance this political agenda, avoiding ideological figures who risk deepening internal divisions and fuel paralysis.

In the coming days, the candidates will face off in a series of debates in Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka, trying to convince party members and lawmakers.

The outcome will determine not only the future of the Japanese government, but also economic stability and relations with other countries in the region, particularly China, Taiwan, and the Koreas.

• japan
• liberal democratic party
• ldp
• leadership race
• elections
• shinjiro koizumi
• sanae takaichi
• yoshimasa hayashi
• toshimitsu motegi
• takayuki kobayashi