Government change in Kathmandu: New Delhi's concerns
After Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, an insurrection led by Generation Z has shaken Nepal. With Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli’s resignation, the debate over the form of state, republic or monarchy, has been reignited, with the latter backed by Hindu extremists who are also the basis of support for Modi’s government in India. While New Delhi fears instability on its borders, Nepal’s military is trying to gain political ground.
New Delhi (AsiaNews) – Nepal is India's third neighbour to see a youth-led uprising successfully overthrow the country’s government. The first one was in Sri Lanka in 2022 and the second in Bangladesh in 2024.
For New Delhi there is an added concern since the Himalayan country borders China's Western Theatre Command, which represents a direct route to the Indo-Gangetic plains.
India and Nepal share an open border of more than 1,750 kilometres, and ties between their peoples run deep, with some 3.5 million Nepalis living and working in India, some even without visas or passports, thanks to a 1950 treaty. In addition, some 32,000 Nepali Gurkhas serve in the Indian Army.
For its part, Nepal is heavily dependent on Indian exports, particularly oil and food, with annual bilateral trade estimated at US$ 8.5 billion. Ties between the two countries, however, primarily concern workers.
Nepal’s latest upheavals, which left more than 50 dead, have had an impact, for example, in Kolkata, particularly Sonagachi, Asia's largest red-light district, where around 200 Nepali women work. Many have been unable to contact their families due to the disruption of communication networks and the closure of border crossings.
For his part, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reacted swiftly. Stressing that “Nepal’s stability, peace, and prosperity are of utmost importance to us”, he appealed “to all my brothers and sisters in Nepal to maintain peace and order”.
Given the situation, Modi called an emergency cabinet meeting. Observers note that India was caught off guard by the developments in its neighbour, just as it was by the 2022 uprising in Sri Lanka.
Yet, the writing was already on the wall with anti-government protests in recent months carried out by groups advocating the return of the monarchy, which was officially abolished in 2008.
On 9 March, over 10,000 supporters of the former monarch gathered in Kathmandu, denouncing the corruption of the government led by Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli, who resigned on Tuesday.
The pro-monarchy agitation is also sign of the influence of India's far-right Hindu movement.
During the protests, posters appeared of Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh and a leading figure in Prime Minister Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Adityanath had previously declared that Nepal's move to become a secular state was unconstitutional. What is more, some BJP leaders are related to the Nepali royal family.
It is important to note that while some Nepalis are seeking the restoration of the monarchy, nearly half of Nepalis want a return to a Hindu state rather than a monarchy.
Historically, the king of Nepal was considered a Hindu deity, a factor that India has consistently exploited to increase its influence in the country and counter Chinese meddling.
Still, support for a return to the monarchy remains questionable. The main pro-monarchy party, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), won less than 2 per cent of the vote in 2017, and 6 per cent in 2022.
Despite this, with Prime Minister Oli’s resignation, the debate over "monarchy vs republic" has now resurfaced.
Many Generation Z protesters have rallied around Mayor Balen Shah, born in 1990, and now hope to see the formation of a government without the three main political parties that have alternated in power in the last few years, accused of corruption and of failing to create better job opportunities for young people.
Some young members of traditional political parties have held counter-protests, advocating a constitutional solution. They see this apolitical, anti-system movement as an attempt to impose an unelected government and are deeply suspicious of the role of the military, which has restored order and could, some believe, move toward restoring the monarchy.
The appearance of Chief of the Army Staff General Ashok Raj Sigdel next to a portrait of an 18th-century king has helped dispel concerns; however, Sigdel has since engaged in dialogue with protest leaders, including Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah and former Chief Justice Sushila Karki, who has been proposed as interim government leader.
India will have to manage diplomatic relations carefully to avoid straining relations with its northern neighbour, as it did with Bangladesh, with the blame partly penned on Hindu extremists backing Modi’s government, which was close to former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Some argue that India should actively engage with angry young Nepalis by increasing scholarships for students and providing more job opportunities, but much will depend on the new leadership that will be chosen in Nepal.
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