Putin's nuclear exercises, between theatre and reality

These days' announced simulations with tactical atomic weapons leave no room for illusions about a possible more conciliatory course of Russian policy. But for the experts 'it is only a reminder that Russia possesses these types of weapons, not that their use is any closer'.

Moscow (AsiaNews) - On the eve of his fifth presidential term, Vladimir Putin had the Ministry of Defense announce the start of exercises with tactical nuclear weapons, "in response to the provocative statements and threats of some Western states towards the Federation Russian."

A move that does not want to leave doubts or illusions about a possible more conciliatory course of Russian politics. The declaration has in fact aroused reactions of great dismay throughout the international press, despite the fact that it concerns rather worn out "apocalyptic" rhetorical categories on the part of the Kremlin in a Putinian version, increasingly similar to those of the Brezhnevian Soviet period.

The announcement of the maneuvers requested directly by the president states that "a set of initiatives will be implemented for the practical elaboration of issues relating to the preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons".

A less bombastic statement than it appears: non-strategic, or  "tactical", weapons are those placed on medium-range missiles (therefore not intercontinental) and with relatively limited power, compared to strategic ones. Air-dropping bombs, torpedo bombs and other types of armament can also be included in this category.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, such weapons have been evoked by the Russians; in March 2023 Putin said he intended to place them on the territory of Belarus, which according to President Alexander Lukashenko would be achieved at the beginning of July. In November Putin signed a law to cancel the ratification of the CTBT treaty on the ban on nuclear tests, promising that Russia would resume them only after a similar choice by the USA.

As Mariana Budjeryn, a Harvard specialist, observes, at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine the risk of using tactical nuclear weapons, at least once as a demonstration, was considered highly probable; but Russia refused to follow up on this intention.

In her opinion “between March and April 2022 the course of the war clearly went against the plans of the Kremlin, which had failed to conquer Kiev, and there was a real danger that Putin wanted to quickly conclude the operation with a sensational action ”. Not even this choice would have led to a global nuclear war, Budjeryn believes, because "no one would have responded to the bomb in Ukraine, which is not a nuclear power, with a bomb on Russia."

In February this year, in an interview with Tucker Carlson, Putin commented on the accusations against Russia regarding the use of nuclear weapons, declaring them "purely intimidating".

Now it seems that Moscow has decided to "move from rhetoric to warning signals", as the Norwegian military analyst Tord Are Iversen comments, even if this does not greatly increase the real threat of these atomic war plans. “It's just a way of reminding that Russia possesses this type of weapon, not that their use is any closer,” the expert believes, “and judging by the statements, it is a response to discussions on the possible direct participation of France and other Western countries to the war in Ukraine."

As Pavel Podvig, UN disarmament researcher, explains, the announced maneuvers mean the transfer of nuclear weapons from depots to "delivery facilities", i.e. to missile launch facilities and other machinery.

“This is a complex transport and installation operation, and the maneuver means that these procedures need to be implemented in practice, as until now only formal instructions remained.” In reality, such exercises had also been implemented in recent times, for example in 2020 in Buryatia, and probably in other locations without disseminating information, using fake nuclear warheads instead of real bombs.

According to American calculations, Russia has approximately 2000 tactical nuclear warheads, approximately double those of the USA, stored in 35 depots close to the facilities used for war; but not all of them would be ready for activation. As Podvig believes, for now these maneuvers "resemble more than anything else a theatrical play", the repetition of the scene of the Apocalypse.

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