12/07/2012, 00.00
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ADB cuts growth forecast for Asia

"Uncertainties" in Europe and the United States and slowing development of the Indian economy. New Delhi records a drop in production and a negative balance in exports. Recovery in China and very positive indices for the nations of Southeast Asia (excluding Singapore), a driving force for the entire continent.

Singapore (AsiaNews / Agencies) - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) this morning cut growth forecasts on the continent for 2012 and 2013, because of the "uncertainties" in Europe and the United States, together with downsizing of expectations for the economy in India. In the recently published Growth forecasts Supplement, the region "Developing Asia" - which excludes Japan - has growth rates of 6% in 2012 and 6.6% for the following year. Experts have set growth at 0.1% less per year than assumed last October. The group of countries included in the band "developing Asia" has been dragged down by the poor performance of New Delhi, confirming the decline in industrial production and the collapse in exports.

In the second quarter, industrial production in India fell by 0.4% while the total return of the gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 5.3% compared to 6.7% last year. Added to this is also the negative consumption rates, which showed "one of the lowest growths" in recent years. In contrast, spending in the countries of Southeast Asia and a "mild" recovery in China have compensated for losses resulting from New Delhi's weakness.

Economist Changyong Rhee says that two serious external threats remain: the persistent problem of debt and the weak economy in Europe, combined with the looming "Fiscal cliff" in the United States - which is likely see an increase in taxes in the United States - are still a major problem that undermines the possibilities for development in Asia.

The October data rather confirms a partial recovery in China, where industrial production is picking up, touching a high point - 9.6% - in the last month and fixed investment expanded by 20.7%, with increases of 25.5% also in infrastructure investments.

Results from Malaysia and the Philippines were better than forecast, boosting the countries of the south-east along with Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand, Bangkok has seen a rebound, also due to the "little impact " on the economy of last year's floods, which crippled the country for weeks. Singapore appears only in the region in contrast, to see an annual increase of 0.3% in the third quarter.


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