09/30/2011, 00.00
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Beijing: justifiable war against Vietnam and the Philippines, for South China Sea

According to one Chinese analyst, there is "logical, beneficial and good reasons" to unleash a war in the Asia-Pacific. His article trends on the web and has the support of many Internet users. Japan and the Philippines promote a common front, Vietnam revives anti-Chinese nationalism. Taiwan confirms its claims over a portion of the Spratly.
Beijing (AsiaNews) - Beijing should punish the Philippines and Vietnam, for claims made on the disputed islands in the South China Sea, according to one political analyst and expert on Chinese energy. Long Tao claims that there are "logical, beneficial and good reasons" to unleash a war in the Asia-Pacific. In a commentary published in the Global Times – a newspaper close to the Communist Party - Long emphasizes that the Spratly and Paracel Islands are "the ideal battlefield " for small-scale wars. In confirmation of his thesis, he rattles off several reasons in favour of war because "China has nothing to lose."

An analyst of the non-governmental China Energy Fund Committee, Long calls for a " moral education expedition" against nations - including Vietnam and the Philippines - which are making similar claims in the area. He apparently is unconcerned about the possible reaction of the United States, he said, are " is fundamentally unable to start a second war in the South China Sea. " and its "rigid" position is stamped by the analyst as "a bluff". The article by Long Tao immediately trended on the net, receiving at least 2 thousand messages of support among the Chinese internet users in a few hours. For the moment no official position has been taken by military experts, with deep ties and knowledge of the Chinese army, it is a "sensitive issue" because it promotes a policy of war that is contrary to the "peaceful" development so far pursued by the leadership in Beijing. A retired colonel of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), on condition of anonymity, reports that war will be "inevitable", if Vietnam and the Philippines "push China into a corner."

To cope with the increased aggression of China, Manila and Tokyo have promoted a "mutual agreement" reaffirming the "vital interests" of the two countries in the region. On 27 September the Japanese prime minister Yoshihiko Noda, and Philippine President Benigno Aquino signed a document aimed to strengthen naval cooperation. Noda reiterated that the two nations share "core values and strategic interests." Aquino, devoted to "peaceful dialogue" with Beijing, added Manila’s interest in "cooperation with Tokyo on maritime security issues."

Taiwan has also entered the fray: after a period spent on the sidelines, the government of Taipei raised the issue of its possession of a part of the Spratly. The Defense Ministry will work in accordance with the National Coast Guard, to strengthen security on the island of Taiping, the only area to enjoy water sources, even installing heavy weapons and artillery. Recently the Chinese government repeatedly invoked Taipei’s collaboration, but so far the administration led by Ma Ying-jeou has snubbed the Chinese demands. Now an agreement between the two can not be ruled out, with them forming a united front against the nations of Southeast Asia.

Meanwhile, Vietnam seems bent on riding nationalist anti-Chinese sentiment. Beijing's aggressiveness has led to the emergence of a common front, including - unprecedentedly - veterans from the South during the war, linked to the pro-American regime in Saigon. More and more intellectuals and activists in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City seem willing to put aside old divisions, conflicts and grudges, to create a "united front" against the powerful neighbour. Attacks against Vietnamese boats, the seizure of boats by the Chinese navy, are judged as a threat to the security and independence of the nation and trigger the reaction of a proud people in claiming their independence.

Among the nations of the Asia-Pacific region, China has the most extensive claims in the South China Sea, which includes the uninhabited Spratly and Paracel Islands, with rich fishing grounds and important oil and gas reserves. Beijing’s claims also reflect its strategic goal of hegemonic control over trade and mineral development, above all oil and natural gas.

Chinese demands have not gone unchallenged. Contenders include Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan, as well as the United States, which has its own strategic interests in the region. Washington, in particular, is quietly moving a network of alliances to contain China's expansionism. The Philippines and Japan in the first place, but also Vietnam could become precious allies in a ever looming possibility of open conflict in the Asia-Pacific.
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