Yangon (AsiaNews) - Aung San Suu Kyi and her party are likely to meet a "tragic end" if they dare to discuss sanctions without realizing that there is a "new era" in Myanmar. This is what the regime newspapers reported today in what appears to be the first violent threat against the "Lady" since she regained freedom in November. The threats seems aimed at forcing Aung San Suu Kyi to keep a low profile, not get involved in international relations that could bypass the junta.

In fact, the Burmese opposition continues to discuss the usefulness of sanctions imposed by the Western block: Aung San Suu Kyi has suggested an amendment to the United States and the European Union embargo, but a fringe of the dissident movement is thought to be against it because the believe it the only way to target the interests of the military.

General Than Shwe, leader of the ruling dictatorship in Myanmar, exalts the new democratic system, the result of the "sham" elections of November 7, 2010 and the first sessions of Parliament in Burma. But the deportation of prisoners, exploited by the military for the most dangerous labour and arbitrary arrests are still a reality in the country. The latest episode occurred over the weekend: the dictatorship ordered the detention of Ross Dunkley, editor in chief of the Myanmar Times of Australian origin.

Here's the analysis submitted by a Burmese journalist in Yangon, an expert in economics and social problems, the signature is a pseudonym to protect his safety.

In recent weeks the issue of sanctions promoted by the United States and European Union against Myanmar has returned to the fore. Among the differing positions, the most reasonable is that of Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD), the main opposition movement in Burma. The opening to a possible "change" is right, because those who believe that they have no effect on the population are wrong, the impact exists and contributes to the continued suffering of an already impoverished population.

In recent years the government grown wealthy thanks to revenues from oil, electricity and natural gas, and the sanctions imposed by U.S. and EU have had little effect. Nations like China, Thailand and India have replaced the Western bloc and promoted trade with the junta, enriching the military leadership in power. Instead, the poor, the labourers who work in factories and earn less than one euro a day, with economic sanctions do not receive even the minimum wage and are destined to starvation.

Small farmers are excluded from big business, which remains in the hands of entrepreneurs, but an opening to the European market would allow them access to the minimum to secure a meal. If the foreign trade with the EU is null, the landowners will have an excuse to pay land labourers even less, while they continue to do business with neighbouring countries. The result is that the poor become even poorer and the suffering of the Burmese increases.

We often talk about democracy, but without a proper economy, electricity, essential goods for survival, the people have no reason to believe in a more just reality. Only growth in the economy, will provide full development and contribute to greater education. The point is crucial: without a proper education, people can never understand what true democracy is, and in order to improve education, basic economics must be strengthened.

Reports published by the United Nations show that the Myanmar government does not educate people in order to keep them in a state of ignorance. The abandonment of school is very high and only 20% of young people reach secondary education. The majority of households are landless peasants, who work as a seasonal labourers and earn just enough to eat. If the harvest goes well, the proceeds are used for food but there is no money left over to invest in education. In the Irrawaddy delta, the situation is even worse: out of 10 families, only 3 or 4 can send their children to school without the monasteries or foreign humanitarian, the children - even children under 10 years - become slaves of child labour.

Aung San Suu Kyi is right when she asks for a "modification" of economic sanctions and the opening of the country to the world. Myanmar should also promote tourism, by which the people can also have their eyes opened through getting to know different realities. The children must learn English at least, language, culture and economics. This promotes dialogue and openness with the outside. Without a hope, an economic perspective, we will remain forever in a situation of poverty, suffering under the yoke of military dictatorship.

An article published in a Burmese newspaper in recent days show that the salaries of junta leader and the president will be increased up to 4.5 million, salaries of the workers will be at levels of ASEAN countries (Association which brings together the nations of the South-east Asia). But in a country like Myanmar, where 70% of the population is devoted to agriculture, it cannot ensure the survival of the population. The people will be left with nothing but the crumbs.