Baghdad (AsiaNews) – Iraqi security forces recently scored a major success against al-Qaeda’s network at a time when the country is still grappling with uncertainty over last month’s parliamentary elections, whose winner has yet to be announced. Whichever faction wins, it must not upset anyone, not the United States nor influential neighbours like Iran or Saudi Arabia.
Outgoing Prime Minister Mr Maliki announced that the Iraqi al-Qaeda leader Abu Ayyub al-Masri and Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, who led an affiliate group called Islamic State in Iraq, are dead. The two men died during a raid near Tharthar Lake, a rural region west of Baghdad, considered a base for Bin Laden’s network. According to a press release by the US military in Iraq, their deaths are “potentially the most significant blow to Al Qaeda in Iraq since the beginning of the insurgency.”
Election results not yet clear
The country remains at a political stalemate. Elections officials on Monday ordered a partial recount of last month’s national election results (for votes cast in Baghdad). In its first session after the poll, the Election Commission accepted complaints from Mr Maliki’s State of Law Alliance. This action could have major consequences for the outcome.
After the initial count, the Sunni-backed secular Iraqiya bloc led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi was ahead by two seats (91 versus 89).
The new tally should take about a week. Only when all appeals have been exhausted will election results go to the Supreme federal Court for certification. Once that is done, the process of forming a new cabinet could start with parliament called within 15 days.
Pressures and overtures from Tehran
Whoever is the winner will have to take into account the “needs” of foreign powers, not only of the United States but also and especially those of Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Last week, various Iraqi leaders visited Tehran, including Iraq’s president, Kurdish Jalal Talabani, and radical Shia leader, Muqtada Sadr.
Allawi and Maliki are members of the Shia majority. Both know very well the role religious parties will play in forging a working coalition in parliament, which will be called to elect a new head of state.
Allawi himself, who has strong Sunni backing, cannot afford to antagonise Tehran, especially if the Shia bloc forms a coalition with the Kurdistan Alliance, which includes most Kurdish parties.
For this reason, the former prime minister made some overtures in the direction of the Islamic Republic. During a recent visit to the Iranian capital by an Iraqiya delegation, he had his representative say that he would not allow Iraqi territory and air space to be used for an attack against Iran.
Through its ambassador in Baghdad, Iran responded by saying that the new government should include Allawi’s alliance, and that means having Sunnis included. Such a statement reflects a shift in position by Tehran, which was previously in favour of a Shia-only government.
Neighbouring Arab states’ influence
The region’s Arab states also play a role in Iraq’s power games. Countries that had a hands off approach like Saudi Arabia (which has not yet reopened its embassy in Baghdad), now must take a stand, especially since United States will start to draw down its forces in September.
In Riyadh, President Talabani held personal talks last week with King Abdullah and other regional leaders.
Allawi too had flown to Saudi Arabia on the eve of the vote. Saudi leaders have always looked upon him with better goodwill than his rival Maliki, who is closer to Tehran.
For Iran and Saudi Arabia, Iraq remains “an important playing field in their competition for regional power and prestige," said Alireza Nader, an Iraq specialist at the Washington-based Rand Corporation.
“However, history has shown that Iran and Saudi Arabia (as major regional powers) are also careful not to let their rivalry boil over into overt conflict," Nader added.
