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  • » 01/18/2012, 00.00

    ASIA

    World Bank: global growth heading for a crisis from which "no one will be saved"



    The world economy will grow by only 2.5, compared with forecasts of 3.6. Eurozone, U.S., China, India, Japan all se downward trend. Growth in developing countries will be 5.4, 1.4 in rich countries,. Need to promote social welfare and infrastructure programs. Food prices fall by 14%, but the problem of food will remain crucial for poor countries.
    Beijing (AsiaNews / Agencies) - The World Bank has cut its global growth forecasts, also warning emerging nations. If the crisis persists, especially in the eurozone, the descent will be very hard and no nation will be spared.

    Presenting the report on the global economy, Justin Lin, chief economist of the body, said that the economy of the world will grow by only 2.5% in 2012 (compared with forecasts of 3.6), the euro area will shrink to 0.3% (previous estimates of 1, 8), and the U.S. will grow by 2.2 (compared to 2.9). For 2012 the growth prospects of Japan have also changed (1.9% from 2.6), China (8.4 from 8, 9) and India (1.9% from 6.5)


    The data released in Asia today (yesterday in the U.S.), is impressive when compared with the predictions of 2011 (2.7%) of 2010 (4.1) and 2009 (2.9). The Bank has, however, added that "even these weak results are very uncertain" and that if the euro zone deteriorates even more, the "negative result would be even longer and deeper" than the previous crisis in 2008, and no nation would be spared.

    Growth for developing nations will be 5.4% (the forecast was 6.2) and those of the rich nations of 1.4 (from 2.7 predicted).

    The WB recommended a commitment to social security programs and re-launch infrastructure investment. It notes that, thanks to the crisis, in most developing countries many prices have fallen and inflation has declined. Despite this, it adds, "the safety of food for the poor - including the Horn of Africa - remains a fundamental concern." From a peak in February 2011 (in correspondence with the "Arab Spring"), prices fell by 14%.

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    See also

    13/01/2011 CHINA – EAST ASIA
    World Bank expects China to lead Asia in growth in 2011
    The World Bank forecasts strong but lower growth in China and the Asia-Pacific region, especially because of higher inflation. Experts say China’s growth will be shaped by political decisions, like the value of the yuan.

    20/01/2011 CHINA
    Inflation fears as Chinese economy grows
    Growth of 10.3% in 2010, The last quarter was 9.8, higher than expected 9.6. Inflation remains high, at 4.6. Curbing the growth of prices is the government's priority. Halt on bank loans and rising interest rates so far do not seem to have produced the desired effects.

    22/10/2008 PAKISTAN
    Pakistan asks for international loan to avoid default
    10-15 billion dollars could be provided by international organizations, to pay down foreign debt and support public spending. It is a forced choice, after China refused a direct loan, although it had promised greater investment.

    21/01/2010 CHINA
    China is the world's second largest economy, ahead of Japan
    GDP grew by 8. 7, more than predictions made a year ago. The World Bank revises global growth upward. China is the engine to exit from the crisis. But Japan is richer. Concerns about inflation and real estate speculation.

    14/04/2008 ASIA
    100 million at risk of poverty: danger of famine and war in poor countries
    The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund raise the alarm: the rise in food prices is reducing entire populations to hunger. Without immediate aid, there are risks of public protests and armed conflict. Over the long term, help must be given to small farmers.



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