02/21/2015, 00.00
CHINA
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Year of the Goat: Forecasts for trade the lowest in 8 years

Less credit from banks, deflation, low prices lead to pessimism. The central bank has reduced interest rates and decreased the level of commercial bank reserves. It will be "a difficult year".

Beijing (AsiaNews / Agencies) - The trade prospects for the next three months have fallen to the lowest level in eight years. Although the oracles of the Year of the Goat are favorable, China MNI commercial indicator claim the opposite.

The various factors lowering expectations include a reduction in loans to companies which has dragged the index down to 52.8, the lowest since March 2007. In January it was 53.7.

According to Philip Uglow, chief economist of the MNI Indicators, "The beginning of 2015 shows that it will be a difficult year."

In an effort to ease liquidity, China's central bank cut the interest rate on currency last November and in February reduced the level of reserves that commercial banks should maintain.

The MNI report states that liquidity released by the central bank has not yet flooded the companies, among which there are mainly manufacturing and service industries.

This pessimism seems to be spreading, also affected by deflation, which is leading to lower prices.

 

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