İmamoğlu and the Kurds: Erdoğan's double play for power
At least four waves of arrests have decimated the leadership of the Istanbul municipality. In addition to the mayor and opposition leader, more than 200 people are in jail. The CHP accuses the government of weaponising the judiciary. In the background, the president's overtures to the PKK are an attempt to win over the Kurds in his plan to change the constitution.
Milan (AsiaNews) – At least four different waves of arrests have decimated the leadership of the Republican People's Party (CHP) in Istanbul in the aftermath of the arrest of the city’s mayor and opposition presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoğlu on 19 March.
Under the pretext of fighting corruption and alleged financial offences, the courts have in fact removed the leaders of the country's business capital, opening prison doors to department heads, aides, spokespeople, and top-level managers.
“They are poisoning the lives of innocent people with morning raids not carried out against the real criminals,” said opposition CHP’s İstanbul Chair Özgür Çelik. “They are persecuting people by repeatedly detaining those they’ve already arrested before.”
The 49 taken in custody in the latest wave last week include Kadriye Kasapoğlu, Imamoğlu's chief of staff, along with Yavuz Saltık and Ali Kurt, who were arrested earlier and later released.
Arrests, a political weapon
The authorities are searching homes, carrying out dawn raids, issuing arrest warrants, and denying those detained visit rights. Despite claims by the government and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan that Turkey’s judiciary is independent, it has in fact become a tool in the struggle to rule the country.
For critics and activists, the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor is clearly politically motivated, solely meant to eliminate Erdoğan’s main rival for Turkey’s leadership.
The numbers show the importance of the harsh crackdown against Imamoğlu and his aides, which unfolded in four waves of arrests: 19 March, 26 April, 20 May and 23 May. At least 229 people ended up behind bars, eight are under house arrest and 26 out on parole.
“If you are an İBB (Istanbul municipal) official, you must now be prepared for an operation every morning – even if you’ve already been detained and released before,” said CHP Parliamentary Group Deputy Chair Gökhan Günaydın on X (formerly Twitter).
For CHP Deputy Chair for Election and Legal Affairs Gül Çiftci, the government's strategy is to “weaponise the judiciary to manipulate society and suppress the opposition.”
“This is nothing short of a campaign of political vengeance,” he said. “The palace regime is using the state like a criminal organization to take over municipalities. The judiciary is acting as the palace’s enforcer. This isn’t just the sound of approaching fascism – it is fascism itself,” which is “hostile to the will of the people of İstanbul,” who, however, “will not bow, kneel, or be silenced!”
For his part, Mayor Imamoğlu has been denied the right to receive visitors. His social media accounts have also been shut down by court order while his picture has been removed from public spaces in an attempt to remove him from people’s minds.
The Sultan's Constitution
The campaign of arrests of senior opposition figures and allies of the mayor of Istanbul is counterbalanced by the uncertainty over Erdoğan’s political future. Under the current constitution, the “sultan” is not eligible for another term.
Recently, the president has spoken out on the issue, stating that he has no further ambitions or intention of running again. But for some observers, this hides a very different plan aimed at staying in power even though the jailed mayor leads in the polls.
The leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) appealed to the leaders of the Republican People's Party (CHP) asking for their support to reform the state and the constitution.
"Come, let's join forces,” Erdoğan said in an interview on his way back from Hungary. “We want a new constitution not for ourselves, but for our country."
Addressing the CHP, the same party purged in Istanbul, he urged its leaders to "join forces" to give a new face to the country. In a reference to the peace process with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the president said: “The greatest legacy we can leave to our children will be a Turkey without terrorism”.
Erdoğan attacked the current constitution head-on, asking if in a "rapidly a rapidly changing world,” it is “possible to get anywhere with a constitution that was written under the conditions of a coup,” albeit one that has gone through “many amendments”.
The reference is to the constitution ratified on 7 November 1982 by a popular referendum that was held under military rule (1980-1983), which replaced the 1961 constitution.
Since it came into force, it has been changed at least 19 times, three times via referendums, one of which created an executive presidency.
“I have stressed the need for a civil, democratic, and libertarian constitution. I stand by that position today,” Erdoğan stressed. “We need a constitution authored not by coup leaders, but by civilians. For this purpose, we in the AKP are working on it and have assigned some of our colleagues accordingly.”
Throwing the ball into the opposition’s court, he noted that "the key question is whether the Republican People’s Party will embark on a journey with us to make a civilian constitution," the president said. “I have no intention to be re-elected or to run again,” he added.
The president's statements have fuelled rumours about the future. For many analysts, he will try to hold on to power, one way or another, despite claims to the contrary, which he has done as prime minister (2003-2014) and president (2014-present).
Although he retains the support of a big segment of the electorate, he now appears to be behind in the polls behind the jailed main opposition leader.
Kurds: from enemies to allies?
Although İmamoğlu's detention has been widely criticised internationally, Erdoğan has been able to shield himself by playing a major role in ongoing international crises, such as the war in Ukraine. Turkey is also a key ally for the West in NATO.
At home, the 2017 referendum granted the president broad powers, while limiting the office to only two terms. To change this via a referendum, he needs the support of 360 Members of Turkey’s 600-seat parliament. With 400 votes he can change the constitution immediately, without the need for a referendum. He can count only on 321 at present.
His recent move to end more than four decades of conflict with the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) has been interpreted by some as an attempt to draw Kurdish support for a new constitution.
Although PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan is still in prison, Erdoğan last week said that, by laying down its arms, the PKK would allow the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) to pursue its activities “in a much stronger way".
With the support of the DEM’s 56 MPs, the president would have a better chance of changing the constitution via the parliamentary route.
This is why addressing the Kurdish question by opening a channel of communication with the PKK, which ended its 40-year armed struggle, is the clearest sign of the president’s attempt to stay in power.
Including the DEM in constitutional reform has “paved the way for the ‘Kurdish opening’,” writes Sinan Ülgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of EDAM, an Istanbul-based think tank.
“The decision marks a turning point not only for Turkey, but for the entire Middle East,” he notes. “Since its founding in the late 1970s by the now-jailed Abdullah Ocalan, the PKK was motivated primarily by the goal of establishing an independent Kurdish state, while also seeking to secure political rights for the Kurdish minority in Turkey.”
Erdoğan’s government could score big in “this area by complying with recent rulings from the European Court of Human Rights, including its demand to release Kurdish political leader Selahattin Demirtaş.”
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29/01/2024 13:09
