Aoun: after the Sharm summit, Beirut ready for “contacts” with Israel
In the climate opened up by the meeting in Egypt, the Lebanese head of state announced his willingness to hold talks with the Jewish state. However, he did not specify whether these would be direct or not. The similarities between the disarmament of Hezbollah and Hamas in Gaza. Hezbollah and Amal are looking to the May 2026 elections to maintain their leadership on the Shiite side. And they aim to block any agreement that may be unwelcome.
Beirut (AsiaNews) - It is through the prism of its own drama that Lebanon experienced the peace summit on 13 October in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. A meeting from which it felt excluded, having received no invitation to participate, despite the fact that after Gaza it was Lebanon that paid the highest price for Hamas' attack on Israel on 7 October 2023.
And, of this operation that triggered a devastating conflict in the Strip for over two years with repercussions throughout the Middle East, the summit in the Egyptian tourist town was the ambiguous and still embryonic epilogue. ‘It is a historic day, but history has yet to be written,’ French President Emmanuel Macron, one of the global leaders present in Egypt, concluded realistically.
With a moderation combined with a pragmatism that many are beginning to appreciate, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun chose 13 October to take the Lebanese political class, and Hezbollah in particular, by surprise. On that same day, the head of state announced that Lebanon would begin negotiations with Israel, ‘the form of which will be defined in due course,’ to resolve outstanding issues between the two countries.
‘Lebanon cannot remain outside the process of resolving the ongoing crises in the region,’ he then clarified before a group of journalists, without ruling out the possibility of direct negotiations.
According to a ministerial source interviewed anonymously by AsiaNews, it is precisely this ‘direct contact’ that the United States is calling for. An approach based on the Syrian model, with faits accomplis followed by security agreements, something that Israel has already achieved by occupying the hills in Lebanese territory and keeping a five-kilometre-wide strip along its entire border with Lebanon in ruins, prohibiting its reconstruction.
In this context, President Aoun benefits from the support of his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron. In a letter addressed yesterday to the Lebanese head of state, the Élysée Palace tenant writes that he welcomes Lebanon's ‘courageous decisions’ aimed at ensuring that weapons remain exclusively in the hands of the legitimate forces of the state.
The French president also reiterated his commitment to organising two international conferences in support of Lebanon by the end of the year, focusing on support for the Lebanese armed forces and the country's reconstruction efforts.
The “solution” evoked by President Aoun involves, contradictorily, the restoration of his sovereignty over the territory occupied by Israel. And, in parallel, the total disarmament of Hezbollah, without the states yet knowing which of these developments should precede the other, or whether this will happen peacefully or violently.
Disarmament, a prerequisite for reconstruction
For its part, Israel knows exactly what it wants. The Jewish state insists on complete preventive disarmament (of Hezbollah), making it clear to the Lebanese that this is an essential prerequisite for any reconstruction. With this in mind, it has just targeted Msayleh, north of the Litani, not far from Nabih Berry's southern residence, a large park with a hundred construction machines.
On this occasion, it reiterated that all Lebanese, whether machine drivers or drilling operators, are prohibited from travelling to the south without prior authorisation: the pass must also specify the name of the driver, the characteristics of the machinery and the nature of the work to be carried out, with a maximum stay of three hours.
The Head of State's decision on 13 October confirms that he is fully aware of the current challenges; at the same time, he must act delicately to meet both Israel's security needs and Lebanon's protection needs, without dragging the country into internal strife that would tear apart its social fabric.
In this regard, he must take into account the United States' insistence on ending the mission of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) from 2027. This decision is rightly interpreted by public opinion as Washington's desire to involve Lebanon and Israel in direct negotiations.
Moreover, in accordance with this resolution, the UN mission has just announced a 25% reduction in its personnel. Behind the scenes, there are rumours that the White House is considering sending Marines to Lebanon to oversee the implementation of the ceasefire agreement, following the model envisaged in Gaza.
Disappearance from the military horizon
Hezbollah's voluntary disappearance from the regional military scene is certainly uncertain and temporary, but it is not as inconceivable as some political circles, which draw a parallel between this process and the disarmament of Hamas in Gaza, would have us believe.
The coming weeks will reveal more clearly whether Israel can count on certain Arab countries, such as Egypt and Qatar, to bring about the political conversion of Hamas, the Palestinian version of the Muslim Brotherhood. The movement's leaders could consider handing over their weapons, provided that this is done in a dignified manner and that they are handed over to a body whose national legitimacy they recognise.
This position would certainly not be opposed by US President Donald Trump, who is sensitive to the chaos that could ensue in the Strip during the transition period without the presence of any internal security forces.
According to journalist and analyst Scarlett Haddad, the same could apply to Hezbollah, which says it is ready to discuss its weapons as part of a general agreement on national security. With the certainty that its weapons will not be confiscated by force by the Lebanese state, the party has begun to play the card of its popular representation again, in particular with a huge scout rally at the Cité sportive in Beirut.
According to the source cited, the real challenge will now be played out in the House of Deputies, ahead of the general elections in Lebanon scheduled for May 2026.
Any agreement between Lebanon and Israel, the journalist points out, must be ratified by Parliament, which is why the Amal-Hezbollah tandem is doing everything possible at this stage to prevent an amendment to the electoral law requested by the sovereignist forces.
A change that, she warns, would grant voting rights to emigrants with dual citizenship in their countries of residence. Such a provision would tip the balance against the tandem, depriving it of the monopoly of Shiite representation it currently holds.
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13/02/2020 09:58
