Demographic winter: Hanoi lifts two-child policy

The measure was introduced in 1989 after the war to reduce the pressure on scarce resources. Removing the limit is meant to reverse the declining birthrate and the aging of the population. The drop is not uniform and affects mainly large centres like Ho Chi Minh City.

Hanoi (AsiaNews) – Hanoi yesterday abolished the long-standing limit of two children per family in order to reverse the declining birthrate and relieve the pressures of an aging population.

This decision ends years of restrictions, following in the footsteps of other Asian countries like China, Japan, Sri Lanka, Iran, and more broadly those of Southeast Asia where a virtual demographic winter is underway.

According to the Vietnam News Agency (VNA), the country’s National Assembly approved amendments scrapping rules that were usually more severely enforced on Communist Party members, who might lose promotions or bonuses if they had a third child.

Vietnamese families are having fewer children than in the past. The birthrate was 2.11 children per woman in 2021, just above the replacement rate needed for the population not to shrink in the long run. Since then, it has steadily dropped to 2.01 in 2022, 1.96 in 2023, and 1.91 in 2024.

Nguyễn Thùy Linh, 37, a marketing manager in the Vietnamese capital Hanoi, said she and her husband decided to have only one child, now six, the “best education and upbringing they could afford.”

Vietnam introduced rules barring families from having more than two children in 1988 to ease pressure on limited resources after years of war, first with France and then the United States. Since then, the country has moved to a more market-oriented economy.

Vietnam’s “golden population” period — when working-age people outnumber those who depend on them — began in 2007 and is expected to last until 2039.

The number of people able to work will likely peak in 2042, but by 2054 the population could start to decline. All this could make it harder for the economy to grow, as there will be fewer workers available and the cost of supporting the elderly, welfare and pensions will increase.

Birthrates in Vietnam are not falling uniformly. In Ho Chi Minh City — the country’s largest city and economic hub — the fertility rate in 2024 was just 1.39 children per woman, much lower than the national average. At the same time, nearly 12 per cent of the city’s population was over 60, putting a strain on social services.

To address the emergency, last December the city began offering about US$ 120 to women who have two children before they turn 35, plus very generous family benefits, like six months of fully paid maternity leave and free health care for children under six. Public school tuition is already free until the age of 15, but starting in September, this will be extended to the end of high school.

The country also faces a skewed gender ratio, partly due to long-standing preferences for boys. According to state media, the distortion is most concentrated in the northern Red River Delta, which includes Hanoi.

Doctors are not allowed to tell parents the sex of their baby before birth, and sex-selective abortions are banned. Nevertheless, some still refer to the sex of the baby in coded language, officials told VN Express, citing a government report.

In recent days, Vietnam’s Ministry of Health proposed to triple to US$ 3,800, the fine for choosing the sex of a baby before birth.

• vietnam
• demography
• winter
• birthrate
• two-child policy
• restrictions
• removal