Demographic winter, millions of poor: the hidden face of Erdoğan's Turkey
More than 12 million people, or 14 per cent of the population, live in extreme poverty. The number of children at risk of removal from their families due to financial difficulties is up. The birth rate is dropping, raising concerns about the country's future demographic balance. One in four citizens is expected to be over 65 by 2080.
Milan (AsiaNews) – More than 14 million people in Turkey rely on social assistance to survive. Of these, almost 12 million, or 14 per cent out of a population of 85 million, live in extreme poverty, this in a country symbolised by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s international activism and “nationalism and Islam" doctrine.
This evidence of the failure of the president’s social and economic policies comes not from the opposition or critics, but from the latest data released by the Turkish Ministry of Family and Social Services, reported by the Turkish Minute.
The mid-year report for January-June 2025, cited by the independent English-language newspaper, shows that the Family Support Programme, launched by the government in 2022, has now reached 2,969,483 households.
Based on estimates from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜIK) of four people per household, this represents 11,879,132 individuals. The data also show a steady increase in children facing removal from their home due to financial hardship.
The total increased from 122,489 in 2018 to 171,895 in June 2025, with steady growth: 129,422 in 2020, 157,248 in 2022, and 170,317 in 2024.
In the first half of 2025, ministry inspectors visiting schools identified 64,158 children at socioeconomic risk.
Millions in poverty
Data published earlier this year by the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV) estimate that 7.1 million children live in families classified as poor according to the definition of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Specifically, the latter sets the poverty line at 60 per cent of the national median income adjusted for household size, corresponding to 32 per cent of children.
Using the methodology applied by the European Union (EU), which includes broader household measures, the figure rises to 34.2 per cent, almost double the EU average of 19.3 per cent.
The number rises to 8.3 million if refugee children are included. Alternative methods of assessing absolute poverty or household expenditures bring the figure to over 10 million.
Rising energy costs and poor housing are making the situation worse for low-income households.
Between January and June 2025, 3,461,452 households (13.8 million people) received government subsidies for electricity, and 669,653 received subsidies for gas bills.
The number of households receiving subsidies for electricity bills rose from 1,343,109 in 2019 to 3,461,000 in the first half of 2025.
Ministry inspectors deemed 10,888 homes "uninhabitable" due to their age, disrepair, and safety risks.
Nermin Yıldırım Kara, a Republican People's Party (CHP) MP from Hatay, told the Nefes newspaper that the ministry's data show the dire conditions faced by many citizens.
“The year 2025, declared the ‘Year of the Family’ by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, has gone down in history as the year of poverty,” said the representative of the main opposition party.
This year, the Turkish government organised events to promote traditional family values and child well-being, although critics say the campaign ignores growing poverty and social inequality.
“If today there are 3,461,000 households unable to pay their electricity bills without assistance, this is an indicator of deep poverty. Increases in electricity and natural gas prices will cause even greater hardship this winter,” Kara added.
Demographic Winter
Turkey has also been experiencing double-digit inflation since 2019, with the annual rate peaking at 85.5 per cent in October 2022. It has since decreased and currently stands at around 34 per cent, but high prices continue to make it hard for Turks to meet basic needs, including food, rent, and utility bills.
This has impacted many families who have had to give up their children, while others are not having children. The latest data from TÜIK show a declining birth rate and a striking demographic shift.
In particular, the number of children is falling to unprecedented levels, while the elderly population is noticeably growing, raising concerns about the country’s future demographic balance.
The figures show that the total number of children under the age of four dropped to approximately 4.9 million in 2025, the lowest ever recorded in modern Turkish history.
Conversely, the number of people over 65 has risen to 9.4 million, up by half a million compared to 2024 – older people now represent 11 per cent of the total population.
Data indicate that women are living longer than men: approximately 5.2 million women are over 65, compared to 4.2 million men. The gap widens most markedly among those over 90.
The productive age group (15-64) still constitutes the majority at 68.4 per cent, but long-term forecasts confirm that the former Ottoman Empire is rapidly moving towards “societal aging” with one in four people expected to be over 65 by 2080.
For sociologist İsmail Tufan, longevity has become a prominent feature of the 21st century.
While Turkey’s population could reach 101 million in the near future, 30 million of them will be over 60 years old, making it necessary to prepare early for a new phase in the country’s demographic evolution.
External activism, internal crisis
Against this backdrop of domestic demographic and economic difficulties, President Erdoğan and his government are actively playing a mediatory role in several crises – at least on paper – from Ukraine to Syria.
While Turkey tries to assert its role on the global stage, domestically it is shifting towards authoritarianism and a despotic form of power, as reflected in the massive campaign of arrests against opposition figures, including the CHP's leading figure, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who has been hit by fabricated corruption charges.
This crackdown has sparked strong protests among Turks, many of whom side with the mayor of the country's economic and commercial capital.
This domestic conflict has cut growth with strikes and boycotts hindering the drive to slow inflation, impacting finances, trade, and foreign exchange reserves, as highlighted by a study released by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
In recent years, the Turkish government has struggled with very high inflation, which reached 75 per cent in May 2024, prompting the central bank to reduce its economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8 per cent, due to lower domestic and external demand and tighter monetary policy.
Bonds and the stock market had become highly attractive to global money managers in the months preceding İmamoğlu’s detention.
According to the EBRD report, the Turkish central bank sold over US$ 40 billion in foreign currency in the weeks following the arrest of the Istanbul mayor, causing its net reserves (excluding SWAPs) to fall from over US$ 60 billion to less than US$ 20 billion.
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29/01/2024 13:09
