Energy, economy, and diplomacy: Erhürman and the future of Northern Cyprus, between Ankara and Brussels
Northern Cyprus’s president-elect won over 62 per cent of the vote, beating incumbent President Ersin Tatar, who was backed by Erdoğan. Turkey’s far right is calling for the vote to be invalidated, pushing for reunification. For his part, Turkey’s president is more cautious, adopting a conciliatory tone. At issue are the island's future and its ties with Europe and the Middle East. Meanwhile, Erdoğan is set to travel to the Persian Gulf on a three-day visit.
Milan (AsiaNews) – Last weekend's presidential elections in Northern Cyprus saw the victory of moderate candidate Tufan Erhürman, who defeated incumbent President Ersin Tatar who is closely linked to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who had campaigned for him.
Despite a clear break with past policies marked by close alignment with Turkey, Erhürman will continue to work with Ankara. Thanks to his clear success, also in terms of numbers, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus can inch its way closer to Europe, without breaking with its Turkish godfather, but the future remains uncertain due to a number of unresolved issues.
According to unofficial results from the Cypriot High Electoral Council, the centre-left, pro-European candidate, leader of the Republican Turkish Party (CTP), received 62.76 per cent of the vote, with more than 218,000 valid votes and a turnout of 64.87 per cent.
Reactions in Ankara
As soon as he was elected, the new leader received warm greetings from the President of the Republic of Cyprus, Nikos Christodoulides, who wants to meet him "as soon as possible".
In his first remarks, he stressed that the relationship with Ankara is "vital" to this government and that no foreign policy decision would be made without its approval. However, this was not enough to quell the ire of Turkey's far right, which is calling for the election results to be disavowed and for a swift move towards unification to be made.
Among the most extreme and radical voices is that of Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a close Erdoğan ally, who said that the elections were characterised by “very low turnout” and the outcome “cannot be accepted”.
In a statement published on the party's official website, the nationalist leader called on Turkey’s parliament to "convene immediately, declare the rejection of a return to a federation on the divided island and take a decision to join the Republic of Turkey.”
In contrast, the Turkish president's initial comments were marked by caution. The day after the vote, Erdoğan congratulated Erhürman, expressing hope that the results will “benefit our nations and the region."
Such a conciliatory tone contradicts the support the Turkish president showed during the election campaign to Tatar, who, in recent months, received visits from several prominent Turkish politicians, including former ministers Süleyman Soylu and Hulusi Akar, whose presence rekindled the ongoing debate over Ankara's influence in Turkish Cypriot politics.
The victory also drew reactions from the Turkish opposition. Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Özgür Özel congratulated his "brother party”, the CTP, and praised the Turkish Cypriot people's choice, which "reaffirmed their democracy and sent a message to those who intervened in the election to serve their own interests.”
Özel also criticised what he called Ankara's "propaganda campaign" in favour of Tatar, saying that Turkish representatives and politicians should respect the will of Turkish Cypriots.
The island's future
What is certain is that this election will dampen the aspirations of those in the north who advocate full alignment – or even annexation – with Turkey, shifting the island’s focus towards Europe and the possible reunification of the island.
The 55-year-old Erhürman, a lawyer, supports negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations, unlike his rival outgoing President Ersin Tatar, who advocated permanent division and tried to convince as many governments as possible to recognise Northern Cyprus, and strengthen the axis with Turkey.
Despite starting from more moderate positions, including the proposal for a federation with two regions with significant autonomy, the new president is not giving up ties with Ankara. In his first post-election comments, Erhürman stressed that he intends to pursue his mandate, particularly in foreign policy, in "consultation" with Turkey, adding that his first visit as president of Northern Cyprus, home to just under 600,000 people, mostly Turkish Cypriots, would be to Ankara to meet Erdoğan.
According to various observers, the immediate goal will not be to radically reverse relations, but to recalibrate them, under the banner of greater negotiating autonomy from Ankara, and to try to reintegrate the Turkish Cyprus into the international community, from which it has been excluded for a very long time.
To this end, Erhürman will have to proceed cautiously, to avoid alienating Turkish support while, at the same time, convince Brussels and Greek Cyprus that his leadership can guarantee stability. For the president-elect, the future cannot be built against anyone, but with everyone.
The issue of Northern Cyprus (and the island in general) is not purely political and diplomatic; other important factors are also on the table, like the economy and, above all, energy, with control of natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean.
Republic of Cyprus Energy Minister George Papanastasiou said that Cyprus will soon become a natural gas producer, and “several options" are being studied, including the use of existing infrastructure in Egypt to liquefy the natural gas.
The most promising developments concern the deep waters off the southern coast, in the part of the island linked to the European Union, of which the Republic of Cyprus is a member state.
The island gained independence from Britain in 1960, but was divided into north and south in 1974, with the lower two thirds under the control of the internationally recognised Republic of Cyprus while the northern third, becoming the de facto separatist Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), recognised only by Turkey, which oversees its interests and economy.
Meanwhile, the three-way alliance between Greece, Cyprus, and Israel, strengthened over the past two years of war in Gaza, is part of a broader plan aimed at connecting the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean, to stem China's growing influence.
For Turkey, this partnership represents a direct strategic threat to its regional ambitions and even its national security.
Erdoğan in the Gulf
With the Northern Cyprus vote behind him, the Turkish president will continue to closely monitor the various conflicts in the region, particularly the fragile truce in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, which has come close to collapse several times since its inception.
Against this background, the Turkish leader today began a three-day visit to Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman. According to Presidential Communications Chief Burhanettin Duran, the trip – at the "invitation" of the three Gulf leaders – focuses on boosting political, economic, and defence cooperation, as well as aligning their respective positions on key regional and international issues.
According to Duran, writing on X, Erdoğan is expected to sign bilateral agreements aimed at expanding trade, investment, and energy partnerships and strengthening ties with the Gulf states.
The Turkish leader last visited the region in July 2023. However, since then, many elements have changed, and serious upheavals have swept across the Middle East, starting with Hamas's attack on Israel on 7 October, which triggered the war in Gaza, with its sequel of death and devastation.
The first stop will be in Kuwait, where Erdoğan met with Emir Sheikh Meshal Al Ahmad Al Jaber Al Sabah to discuss trade relations between the two countries, the humanitarian situation in Gaza, and aid coordination, as well as support for the peace process.
The visit will continue with a stopover tomorrow in Qatar, for a summit with Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Doha. Here, much of the discussion will focus on Gaza and its humanitarian situation. Thanks to its close ties with Hamas leaders, Qatar was a key player in negotiations with Israel (and the United States) to reach a truce.
Oman is the final stop, where discussions between the Turkish leader and Sultan Haitham bin Tariq bin Taimur Al Said are expected to be centred primarily on economic issues and cooperation between the two countries, as well as regional developments.
GATEWAY TO THE EAST IS THE ASIANEWS NEWSLETTER DEDICATED TO THE MIDDLE EAST. WOULD YOU LIKE TO RECEIVE IT EVERY TUESDAY? TO SUBSCRIBE, CLICK HERE.
.png)
18/11/2019 16:01
