Sabaileh: protests in Iran and the failure of regional domination
Iran claims that the situation is relatively calm, but reports about protests are still coming from the country. Some estimates put the death toll as high as 12,000, while Iranian authorities report around 2,000 deaths. Speaking to AsiaNews, a Jordanian scholar notes that Iran’s crisis is not just a domestic problem related to the economy and society, but touches the entire Middle East and reflects the collapse of Iran’s allies.
Milan (AsiaNews) – Several factors are behind the protests in Iran with its hitherto unknown number of victims. The “internal situation” is the main driver reflecting the “economic situation" with “sanctions, the collapse of the currency, and rising gasoline prices,” this according to university professor Amer Al Sabaileh.
An expert in international security, geopolitics, peace, and Mideast studies, Prof Sabaileh is also a leading columnist and contributor to several media outlets and newspapers, including The Jordan Times.
Analysing recent developments in Iran, he notes that “this is not the first time" that street protests have occurred. “If the regime doesn’t fall, they certainly won't be the last.” But “there is a difference today: [the protests] are a regional issue,” due to Tehran's Mideast policies through “proxy groups in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria.”
“What we are witnessing," he explained, “is the collapse of this theory of regional domination, which has led to chaos on the domestic front.”
A different protest
One of the new elements in the protests are its origins and roots in the country’s regions, in rural and remote areas.
“The signs of this collapse in rural areas have certainly been visible in recent years," Prof Sabaileh explained, linked to other critical issues such as "security issues, border areas, the economy, and social discontent," which is also at the root of attacks on law enforcement.
However, “Unlike the past, they started in rural areas and spread to the cities, also affecting the middle classes, youth movements, and those involved in trade. For this reason, I believe this time the picture is quite different from past protests, socially broader and national in scope.”
However, for the Jordanian scholar, the uprising must also be seen as a measure of the dissatisfaction exacerbated by “an accumulation of years of misguided policies” by the authorities, which “have generated poverty, social problems, and repression.”
In the past, there have been street protests, such as those in 2022 over Mahsa Amini and, even before, in 2019 over fuel prices. Today, the expert warns, "we mustn't look at the issue from the outside, from a Western perspective, but rather immerse ourselves in the country's situation. It wouldn’t manifest itself with such force and intensity unless there is some underlying deep discontent, a poorly concealed anger within the country. I believe this protest involves all social groups.”
Regarding the “internal cleavage”, the first explicit signs date back to the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, followed by the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a mysterious accident, the rise of Masoud Pezeshkian, and the expression of divergent opinions within the regime, ranging from those who would like to "open up to the West to those who intend to adopt a more aggressive approach.”
This is clearly highlighted by the mounting accusations against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, “We are living in a particular moment,” one “that shows that within the regime there are voices directing this anger towards a certain policy.”
Thus, for Prof Sabaileh, “some sectors of the regime could represent salvation, because change does not require the collapse of the entire system" but may just touch the top leadership. “We saw it in Syria and, more recently, in Venezuela, avoiding the disastrous Iraq model with the 2003 invasion.”
Trump’s tariff war
Meanwhile, some reports by the Fars news agency, which is linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), suggest that a relative “calm” is now in place in the country “after the storm”. Last night was ostensibly peaceful after the violent crackdown against street protests in the past two weeks.
A report released this morning describes several cities – including the capital Tehran, Isfahan, Ilam, and Bushehr – as experiencing a “night without disturbances”.
Still, security forces continue to patrol the main streets to “reassure the public” as the news agency reported, while nearly three million people are believed to have participated in yesterday's pro-government counter-demonstrations.
However, despite what media outlets close to Iran’s clerical regime might say, the picture is far from peaceful. International agencies and media are posting videos claiming that protests continued yesterday in various cities, even though the Internet shutdown, now in its fifth day, is making independent verification of their authenticity increasingly difficult.
Although it is hard to verify the numbers and claims by various parties, the death toll continues to rise, According to the Norway-based group, Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO), at least 648 protesters were killed in the recent riots, noting that unverified sources suggest the death toll could be as high as 12,000.
An Iranian government source put the death toll at around 2,000, including protesters, members of the security forces, and civilians, including minors.
For his part, US President Donald Trump announced the opening of a channel of communication and negotiations with Tehran, confirmed by Iranian authorities, while setting off another trade war, by imposing 25 per cent tariffs on all trade between the United States and countries that do business with the Islamic Republic. The measure, Trump wrote on Truth Social, will be “Effective immediately”.
China, one of Iran's main partners, responded right away, saying that it “will take all necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests" in the Mideast country.
Finally, a meeting of Trump's national security team is scheduled for Tuesday to discuss what to do. From military escalation to cyberattacks, many options are on the table, with Israel closely monitoring developments from behind the scenes.
Regional impact
With respect to dialogue, Prof Sabaileh noted that it is in the US administration's interest to talk about “an open diplomatic channel with Iran, at this moment of total weakness” and that, from a propaganda perspective, it shows how “Trump has tamed his rivals”.
In his view, “what [the White House] wants is a complete internal change at the political and ideological level, to ensure that these countries no longer represent an obstacle to his vision of regional peace” in the context of the Abraham Accords.
“Even diplomatic channels," he warns, "today represent a way to use force" and assert “the new ideology" of the United States, according to which "peace is imposed by force."
Lastly, regarding the regional consequences, developments could have had, at least in theory, "a very negative impact.
In fact, already in the past months, in April and May," Sabaileh noted, "we had moments and events that demonstrated how weakening Iran is a long-term, systemic process" linked to multiple factors: Israeli infiltration of the Islamic Republic's apparatus, the use of US force, and the demolition of nuclear sites.
“All of this represents a regional process,” he warns, “that also involves the elimination of all [hostile] forces around Israel that could pose a security risk” to the Jewish state.
For the Jordanian scholar, “What has happened in the last two years shows how the negative impact linked to events within Iran has been contained.”
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12/06/2025 15:41
