New rift in Burmese resistance: Karen group proclaims independent state

The general in charge of the Kawthoolei Army (KTLA), one of the militias fighting against the military junta, recently announced the birth of the ‘Republic of Kawthoolei’ on the border with Thailand. The move divides the Karen people and has been criticised because it risks weakening the anti-junta front in the civil war, at an already very delicate moment for the resistance.

Yangon (AsiaNews) - Among the factions fighting against the Burmese army in Myanmar's civil war, which is about to enter its sixth year, there is further fragmentation. On 5 January, a Karen military commander proclaimed the birth of an independent state along the border with Thailand, opening a new and delicate rift within the anti-coup front.

General Saw Nerdah Mya, leader of the Kawthoolei Army (KTLA), announced the creation of the ‘Republic of Kawthoolei’, which will be led by the Kawthoolei (GOK). With this declaration, the KTLA marks a radical change of course from the goal that had hitherto been shared by the various militias that make up the resistance, namely the creation of a federal and democratic union in which ethnic groups share power within a single state.

With this move, however, the KTLA is no longer calling for autonomy or federalism, but for full independence and complete separation from Myanmar. This is a dynamic that is already underway in several areas of Myanmar under the control of ethnic militias, such as the western state of Rakhine.

The GOK has stated that the Karen people have suffered “77 years of oppression” under military governments led by representatives and generals of the Bamar ethnic group. The KTLA also claims that the state of Myanmar has now collapsed due to the armed resistance that erupted after the 2021 military coup, in which the army seized power and imprisoned democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

In light of this situation, the group claims the right, based on international human rights principles, to self-govern, control its traditional territories and ensure the safety of the Karen population. The newly announced government intends to draft its own constitution, form a cabinet, establish an independent judiciary and gain international recognition as a separate state from Myanmar.

However, the proclamation has opened up serious divisions within the Karen community itself. For decades, the main political representative of the Karen people has been the Karen National Union (KNU), whose armed wing, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), is one of the main militias fighting against the military junta.

Officially, the KNU still supports the creation of a democratic federal union and works closely with the National Unity Government (NUG), the previous government in exile, and other ethnic militias. Its leaders have openly criticised Saw Nerdah Mya's unilateral declaration, calling the KTLA a splinter group whose actions undermine the unity of the Karen people.

Several Karen leaders fear that this affair will weaken the fight against the junta at a crucial moment. After regaining control of a number of territories, the military is holding elections to legitimise the regime, but only in areas under its control, not throughout the country.

Public opinion in Karen communities also appears divided: some see independence as a clear and definitive solution; others fear that it could lead to armed clashes between Karen groups, shifting the conflict from resistance against the military regime to an internal war.

According to several analysts, if the KTLA's independence project gains momentum, other powerful ethnic armed groups could also abandon the federal vision in an attempt to create many small separate states. Such a dynamic would risk fragmenting the resistance alliance, weakening military coordination and significantly prolonging the civil war.

There are also immediate security concerns along the border between Myanmar and Thailand. Tens of thousands of refugees fleeing the junta's bombing and offensives are already residing in the area. Any fighting between rival armed groups could generate new waves of displaced persons. In addition, the KTLA controls territories close to strategic gas pipelines supplying Thailand, raising concerns about the security of energy infrastructure and regional stability.

The announcement also confirms what several analysts had already predicted after the start of the civil war: attempts to remove the ruling military junta could be just one phase of the conflict, which could take unpredictable turns due to the unhealed historical wounds between Myanmar's many ethnic groups.

• Myanmar
• civil war
• Karen
• KTLA
• Kawthoolei