UN: Heat is the “main climate threat” for Asia

The alarm was raised in a report by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. Long-term resilience measures are needed to combat economic losses, health crises and the collapse of energy infrastructure. Asphalt and concrete in cities are exacerbating the emergency. The continent's water resources are also at risk.

Bangkok (AsiaNews) - Heat has become the main climate threat to the Asian continent, according to the latest report published by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), entitled “Rising Heat, Rising Risk”.

As highlighted by the dramatic floods in Southeast Asia in recent weeks, the document stresses the need to move towards long-term resilience measures to counter economic losses, health crises and the collapse of energy infrastructure.

2024 was the hottest year on record worldwide. In Asia, the most severe extreme event was the heatwave that hit Bangladesh between April and May last year, affecting around 33 million people, while in India it caused around 700 deaths.

To assess future risks, the report uses the “heat index”, which combines temperature and relative humidity. A value of 35°C or above indicates an already very serious situation, while a value of over 41°C indicates a condition of extreme danger in which sunstroke and heatstroke become likely even for individuals who are not at risk.

According to current forecasts, between 2080 and 2099, South Asian countries (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh) could experience more than 300 days per year with a heat index above 35°C, and in many areas there could be more than 200 days above the 41°C threshold. Myanmar, Thailand and Cambodia are also likely to face more than 250 days per year above 35°C.

Extreme heat generates a series of cascading impacts that will have even more devastating effects in Asia-Pacific than in the rest of the world. Asian cities, for example, could see temperatures rise by up to 7°C due to their growth, which has led to an increase in the use of asphalt and concrete.

Asian metropolises such as Seoul, Singapore, Bangkok, Karachi, Jakarta and Phnom Penh will be at the centre of this crisis, also becoming the places where the greatest inequalities will be experienced: a study conducted in Bandung, Indonesia, found a difference of up to 7°C between the hottest and coolest areas of the city, which usually correspond to wealthier neighbourhoods with greater availability of green spaces. Children, the elderly and low-income workers are most at risk.

In addition to the immediate costs of responding to emergencies, estimated at 8 billion, there are also the economic consequences of reduced labour productivity.

Working hours lost due to heat stress in Asia and the Pacific, particularly in labour-intensive sectors such as agriculture, construction and certain industries, are set to more than double by 2030, exceeding a level of hours that is equivalent to 8.1 million full-time jobs, with repercussions for the economic growth of individual countries and the fight against inequality.

Given that rising temperatures trigger many cascading events, the monetary value of their impact is usually underestimated, but costs are expected to increase significantly.

Energy infrastructure is also particularly vulnerable, because as temperatures rise, so does the demand for air conditioning, which is expected to triple by 2050, in turn increasing energy demand.

However, extreme heat complicates and weakens electricity production, putting pressure on power stations, which will find it increasingly difficult to operate efficiently. The report also estimates that the exposure of power plants to days exceeding 40°C is set to double, exceeding 8%.

Part of the consequences will affect water resources: glaciers in the mountainous regions of Asia, which support the functioning of ecosystems, are melting at rates higher than the global average. By 2060, several countries such as Iran, Mongolia, Myanmar, Turkey and Uzbekistan could lose more than 70% of their glacier mass, compared to the 5% that glaciers globally have lost so far.

As a result, floods from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are increasing. In Sikkim, India, such a disaster in 2023 caused damage and losses worth £173 million.

The report denounces the current short-term responses as insufficient in the face of such a systemic threat and therefore proposes a general rethinking of current policies, emphasising the need to pay greater attention to health, the fight against inequality and integrated finance.

A central part of this model concerns the expansion of early warning systems for heatwaves, which, if implemented in the 57 countries that still lack such tools, could save around 100,000 lives per year. Despite this, only 54% of meteorological services worldwide issue specific warnings for high temperatures.

Investments must also play a strategic role: according to the report, it is not necessary to create new dedicated funds, but rather to divert existing resources to sectors that are best placed to respond to future climate disasters.

Investments in adaptation in the health sector, for example, with an average of over 78%, offered some of the highest returns among those analysed. This is because investing in health systems that are better able to respond to climate crises can not only save lives, but also improve public health and strengthen the economic productivity of the most vulnerable populations.