Ukrainian war: the Russian Federation risks disintegration

The 'free peoples' are in favour of independence from Moscow. Russia seen as an 'artificial' construction. Major pushes in Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. Central government repression. Everything will depend on the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict.

Moscow (AsiaNews) - One of the possible consequences of the Ukrainian war, especially due to the uncertainties of Russia subjected to the counter-attack of the Kiev army, is the uprising of the peoples of the Federation against Moscow. This is emphasised by some specialists surveyed by Idel.Realii. The 'free peoples' have already rallied their representatives in exile several times: the first time in May in Warsaw, the second time in late July in Prague and the third time in recent days in the Polish city of Gdansk.

These demonstrations were attended by a large number of activists and politicians speaking out in favour of secession from Russia, provoking very resentful reactions in the media and in statements by Russian leaders. The director of the Independent Institute of the Regions of Russia, Lithuanian Andrius Almanis, presented the 'Naiznanku' (Upside Down) project in Gdansk, explaining how real the threat to Russia of a break-up between its ethnic groups is.

In his opinion, 'this is far from being an artificial process, in fact it is the Russian Federation that is an artificial institution, and when the oppressive force of the centre is weakened, centrifugal tendencies set in almost automatically'. In regions with a strong ethnic characterisation, from the Caucasus to Siberia, but also in the northern European and Asian regions, the idea of independence has been deeply rooted for centuries. Almanis himself emphasises that this development depends above all on the possible Russian failure in Ukraine.

'Even in the densest layers of asphalt cracks are created, from which shoots sprout,' says the Lithuanian activist, 'and now it is not just cracks, but ever-widening chasms. Among the 'identity' regions and republics, Tatarstan certainly stands out, along with its neighbours and 'relatives' of Bashkortostan, both in the crucial geographical position of the Uralic zone, on the border between Europe and Asia. There are many small peoples, especially in the Siberian expanses, who are in danger of disappearing, and are now trying to find themselves in the aftershocks of the wars and mobilisations of recent times.

One of the 'internal frontiers' of the peoples' liberation struggle is the language and cultural issue, which also identifies the new leaders of the protests, who are committed to the defence of national languages in school and university curricula. This is a subject that is little known outside national and regional borders, and the forums that follow one another are also intended to inform international public opinion about the aspirations of the 'free peoples' of Russia.

It is no coincidence that two draft laws were discussed in the Moscow Duma at the end of September, to introduce new penalties and apply the definition of 'extremism' to any form of dissemination of information, images or symbols that 'question the territorial integrity of Russia'. Maps showing regions separately are cause for arrest for up to 15 days, and a fine of at least one million roubles (EUR 20,000).

A Bashkian activist, Airat Dilmukhamedov, was arrested in recent days for connecting to the Gdansk forum, and his video intervention was considered 'inciting subversion against the integrity of the nation'. The court in Ufa ruled that the nationalist organisation 'Baškort' was defined as extremist and banned its activities on the entire territory of the republic. Many other activists and exponents of local cultures are persecuted, such as the Tatar writer Fauzja Bajramova, the publicist from the Komi region (north of European Russia) Nikolaj Udoratin or the president of the association of Finno-Ugric peoples Petr Tultaev, and many others.

The internal front is widening, even where there are no clamorous episodes of protest or no well-known leaders, and it could explode even more thunderously than the bombs on the Kerč bridge, a sign of the fragility of Russia at war against external enemies, but also against itself.