The axis between Israel (and the US), the United Arab Emirates, and India is being countered by a bloc that includes Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. Turkey is refocusing on the idea of an alliance of Muslim countries to minimise “dependence on outside the region.” At home, the row over the leadership of the main opposition party has reopened wounds that had never healed.
The charges against Bahar Saharaian reportedly include ‘propaganda activities’ against the Islamic Republic and ‘spreading false news’. In 2022, she had already been imprisoned for joining her colleagues’ protest against the crackdown on demonstrations following the death of Mahsa Amini. Hotel closed for failing to comply with hijab rules and record number of executions in 2025.
The war with Iran has triggered a shift in Riyadh that is not merely geographical. Neom, Yanbu, and Jeddah are no longer just scenic elements of Vision 2030, but strategic infrastructures for survival. Hence, Mohammed bin Salman is trying to avoid all-out war with Iran (which would also jeopardise the Red Sea) in a context where the US is no longer a guarantor of stability.
Fourteen of 23 ministers have been named, with Interior and Defence still without office holder amid tensions between political parties. Two secret Israeli bases in Iraq were used to attack Iran. Pope Leo XIV met with Kurdistan's President Barzani. The newly elected Chaldean Patriarch Nona arrived in Baghdad, with his official inauguration on 29 May.
Iran accuses Prime Minister-designate al-Zaidi of being too close to US positions. Iraqi officials say Tehran is trying to exercise a veto and pressure Iraqi Shias. A visit by US officials is expected to oversee the formation of the new Iraqi cabinet. Israel is rumoured to have set up a secret base in the west of the country.
Tehran is looking at alternative transport routes from Pakistan to China. The exploitation of a rail corridor to China, especially valuable for oil transport, is under consideration. A fourth South Korean ship has successfully crossed the Red Sea. Energy is also a central issue at the ASEAN Summit in Cebu.
