Russia-Iran-Syria axis gets a boost in Moscow
Moscow (AsiaNews) - A few days before the opening of the international conference on Syria next Wednesday in Montreux, Switzerland, it is clear that a "Tehran-Moscow-Damascus axis [is] emerging," said Andrei Baklitsky, an analyst with the Russian Center for Policy Studies (PIR), following two days of intense discussions in Moscow between top diplomats from the three countries. For him, "Russia and Iran support Assad and a political settlement to the conflict - and this is the only thing working right now." Thus, "The West has no other alternative."
Following its "success" in getting its Syrian ally to give up chemical weapons, thwarting what looked like the an inevitable US attack on Damascus, Putin's Russia now wants Iran at the Geneva II conference in order to save the Assad regime and curb the influence of Russia's enemies in the region.
Although Lavrov insisted, "We have nothing to hide. We have no hidden agenda" after meeting Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Mouallem on Thursday and Friday, he also noted that "We are proceeding on the basis that Iran should and inevitably will be part of a set of measures to settle the Syria problems".
For his part, Zarif said that Iran would participate in the Swiss meeting "if we are invited".
Officially, participants are invited by the UN Secretary General, as agreed by Russia and the United States, the conference's main backers.
Lavrov said that Russia trusts UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon as a "man who understands the realities of the region and is aware of his responsibility".
He also pointed out that the Iranians have a certain leverage in Syria and for this reason should participate.
The problem is that Tehran will not accept preconditions, whilst the United States would accept its presence only if it agrees to the objectives set for the peace conference in the June 2012 Geneva communiqué. Iran has rejected this because it would open the way to a transitional government that could replace Assad.
The talks in Moscow between Damascus and its two major allies come only days after the "Friends of Syria" met in Paris. The grouping is made up mostly of Western and Gulf nations backing the Syrian opposition.
All this diplomatic activity comes against the backdrop of an oil deal between Moscow and Tehran that would allow Iran to bypass Western oil-export ban and sanctions. Such a deal is the reason why Tehran agreed in November to end its nuclear program.
Russia is in talks with Iran on a possible deal that could see Moscow take 500,000 barrels of oil a day from Iran in exchange for Russian goods and equipment, including Antey-2500 long-range air defence missiles, Reuters reported.
For some analysts, Moscow and Tehran are trying to draft their own post-war plan based on Washington's growing anxiety about the presence of Al-Qaeda sympathisers in rebel ranks.
"A large part of these negotiations are focused on what happens after Geneva II," said Alexander Konovalov of Moscow's Institute for Strategic Assessment.
The Kremlin holds strong sway over the Islamic republic because of Iran's desire to purchase Russian missiles and other high-tech arms.
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